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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
Danny8273nigiri99VirIntrepidus
Record (consensus markets)81% (21–5, n=26)53% (532–472, n=1004)90% (18–2, n=20)
Consensus PnL$6.4K$635K$530K
Tracked aswas PM monthly #921PM monthly #53PM monthly #67
Sides with the consensus100% (1 of 1 open)52% (57 of 109 open)60% (6 of 10 open)
Strongest topics
  • NBA +51 pts n=15, ROI +40%
Weakest topic———
Settled positions, side won88% of 25 at avg 72¢, ROI +11%77% of 768 at avg 54¢, ROI +11%100% of 15 at avg 49¢, ROI +40%
Entries under 30¢0%12% (won 45% of 89)13% (won 100% of 2)
Entries 30–50¢0%25% (won 71% of 190)40% (won 100% of 6)
Entries 50–70¢36% (won 78% of 9)45% (won 80% of 347)33% (won 100% of 5)
Entries 70¢ and up64% (won 94% of 16)18% (won 99% of 142)13% (won 100% of 2)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

0 on the same side, 6 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketDanny8273nigiri99VirIntrepidus
Spread: Jaguars (-10.5)
opposite sides · consensus Titans
—Jaguars $80KTitans $109K
Bills vs. Jets
opposite sides · consensus Bills
—Bills $122KJets $54K
49ers vs. Cowboys
opposite sides · consensus 49ers
—49ers $61KCowboys $275
Spread: Packers (-2.5)
opposite sides · consensus Packers
—Packers $38KVikings $12K
Vikings vs. Packers
opposite sides · consensus Vikings
—Packers $7.1KVikings $8.5K
Spread: 76ers (-7.5)
opposite sides · consensus Pacers
—76ers $3.1KPacers $292