Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold 76ers, while the market favors Pacers (52%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: 76ers (-7.5)

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (88%) · 76ers at 49¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 15

76ers49¢Pacers51¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 88%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.0K

Combined PnL

$117.28

Smart Money Entry

47.2¢ → 48.5¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Pacers 52%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers49%

Pacers52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers7 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares10,696

Combined PnL+$112.45

Pacers1 trader

Total Value$125.58

Total Shares241

Combined PnL+$4.83

76ers — 88%Pacers — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whale76ers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctr76ers 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 100076ers 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	76ersavg 46.4¢	$3.6K	$3.7K	+$74.39	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 46.4¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$74.39
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 52¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$0
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	76ersavg 48¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$28.03	50% 2835-2864 (5699)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	76ersavg 46¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$75.13	48% 720-766 (1486)
FL FlaznorpCTR	76ersavg 47¢	$478.83	$489.02	+$10.19	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Pacersavg 52¢	$343	$350	+$7	59% 3948-2729 (6677)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 52¢	$182	$182	+$0
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 46¢	$161	$168	+$7
GC GC-PARB<$100	Pacersavg 52¢	$343	$350	+$7	42% 547-747 (1294)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 52¢	$182	$182	+$0
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 46¢	$161	$168	+$7
SE sentrioARB<$100	76ersavg 47¢	$324.47	$327.97	+$3.49	41% 1173-1667 (2840)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 47¢	$164.12	$167.62	+$3.49
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 52¢	$160.35	$160.35	-$0
AP AppleTiiime	Pacersavg 50¢	$120.75	$125.58	+$4.83	52% 113-104 (217)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	76ersavg 50¢	$85	$81.6	-$3.4	44% 337-422 (759)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	76ersavg 46¢	$46	$48	+$2	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	76ersavg 46¢	$11.5	$12	+$0.5	50% 2174-2194 (4368)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	76ersavg 48¢	$9.6	$9.6	-$0	56% 663-529 (1192)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$3,582.96

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$74.39

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

Both legs:

76ers$2,163.7946.4¢+$74.39

Pacers$1,419.1752¢+$0

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

76ers

Invested

$2,690.7

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$28.03

Record

50%

2835-2864 (5699)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

76ers

Invested

$1,728.07

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$75.13

Record

48%

720-766 (1486)

FlaznorpCTR

76ers

Invested

$478.83

Value

$489.02

PnL

+$10.19

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

NM-PARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$343

Value

$350

PnL

+$7

Record

59%

3948-2729 (6677)

Both legs:

Invested

$343

Value

$350

PnL

+$7

Record

42%

547-747 (1294)

Both legs:

Invested

$324.47

Value

$327.97

PnL

+$3.49

Record

41%

1173-1667 (2840)

Both legs:

76ers$164.1247¢+$3.49

Pacers$160.3552¢-$0

AppleTiiime

Pacers

Invested

$120.75

Value

$125.58

PnL

+$4.83

Record

52%

113-104 (217)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$85

Value

$81.6

PnL

-$3.4

Record

44%

337-422 (759)

38791873984189CTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$46

Value

$48

PnL

+$2

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

Pan9XCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$11.5

Value

$12

PnL

+$0.5

Record

50%

2174-2194 (4368)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$9.6

Value

$9.6

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

663-529 (1192)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Pacers 52%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whale76ers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctr76ers 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 100076ers 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.