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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Bagwell306 | BreakTheBank | HomeRunHazard | robustmst | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 53% (25–22, n=47) | 58% (22–16, n=38) | 55% (216–179, n=395) | 42% (13–18, n=31) |
| Consensus PnL | $5.8K | $837K | $290K | $208K |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #499 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #7 | PM monthly #28 |
| Sides with the consensus | 38% (8 of 21 open) | 54% (7 of 13 open) | 61% (81 of 133 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled |
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| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 100% of 24 at avg 48¢, ROI +51% | 100% of 23 at avg 50¢, ROI +47% | 100% of 97 at avg 54¢, ROI +46% | 100% of 13 at avg 45¢, ROI +50% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 4% (won 100% of 1) | 0% | 1% (won 100% of 1) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 63% (won 100% of 15) | 57% (won 100% of 13) | 32% (won 100% of 31) | 85% (won 100% of 11) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 25% (won 100% of 6) | 39% (won 100% of 9) | 57% (won 100% of 55) | 15% (won 100% of 2) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 8% (won 100% of 2) | 4% (won 100% of 1) | 10% (won 100% of 10) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
4 on the same side, 12 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Bagwell306 | BreakTheBank | HomeRunHazard | robustmst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Nuggets (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Grizzlies | — | Grizzlies $285 | Nuggets $26K | — |
| Thunder vs. Trail Blazers opposite sides · consensus Trail Blazers | — | Trail Blazers $22K | Thunder $4.6K | — |
| Utah vs. Golden Knights opposite sides · consensus Golden Knights | Utah $539 | — | Golden Knights $15K | — |
| Vikings vs. Packers opposite sides · consensus Packers | Packers $3.3K | — | Vikings $6.3K | — |
| Spread: Packers (-5.5) opposite sides · consensus Vikings | Packers $2.0K | — | Vikings $5.6K | — |
| Spread: Trail Blazers (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Thunder | — | Trail Blazers $676 | Thunder $4.3K | — |
| Spread: Trail Blazers (-1.5) opposite sides · consensus Trail Blazers | — | Trail Blazers $133 | Thunder $3.7K | — |
| Vikings vs. Packers: O/U 42.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | Under $2.6K | — | Over $884 | — |
| Seahawks vs. Raiders opposite sides · consensus Seahawks | Raiders $14 | — | Seahawks $1.5K | — |
| Dolphins vs. Colts opposite sides · consensus Colts | Dolphins $34 | — | Colts $1.1K | — |
| USC vs. Indiana: O/U 49.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | Under $5 | — | Over $910 | — |
| Spread: Colts (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Colts | Dolphins $48 | — | Colts $114 | — |
| Spread: Lakers (-14.5) same side · consensus Bucks | — | Lakers $3.3K | Lakers $20K | — |
| Spread: Nuggets (-3.5) same side · consensus Grizzlies | — | Grizzlies $468 | Grizzlies $1.3K | — |
| Buffalo vs. Ball State same side · consensus Buffalo | Ball State $35 | — | Ball State $1.1K | — |
| Northwestern vs. Ohio State: O/U 47.5 same side · consensus Over | Over $411 | — | Over $234 | — |