Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Ball State, while the market favors Buffalo (52%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Buffalo vs. Ball State
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Ball State (40%) · Ball State at 49¢ · $781 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Ball State
5
Ball State 40%
$780.67
-$9
45¢ → 48.5¢
+8% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralBall State at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Buffalo 52%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Ball State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR | Ball Stateavg 45¢ | $759.11 | $750.67 | -$8.43 | 48% 532-588 (1120) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Buffaloavg 52¢ | $16.86 | $16.7 | -$0.16 | 54% 512-439 (951) |
IM imjustkenisghey<$100 | Buffaloavg 54¢ | $11.02 | $10.61 | -$0.41 | 52% 14-13 (27) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Ball Stateavg 43¢ | $1.51 | $1.56 | +$0.05 | 57% 3183-2408 (5591) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Buffaloavg 54¢ | $1.17 | $1.13 | -$0.04 | 52% 422-389 (811) |
Invested
$759.11
Value
$750.67
PnL
-$8.43
Record
48%
532-588 (1120)
Invested
$16.86
Value
$16.7
PnL
-$0.16
Record
54%
512-439 (951)
Invested
$11.02
Value
$10.61
PnL
-$0.41
Record
52%
14-13 (27)
Invested
$1.51
Value
$1.56
PnL
+$0.05
Record
57%
3183-2408 (5591)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$1.17
Value
$1.13
PnL
-$0.04
Record
52%
422-389 (811)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.