Utah vs. Golden Knights
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Golden Knights (20%) · Golden Knights at 55¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 12
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Neutral
Golden Knights
5
Golden Knights 20%
$3.8K
$50.58
Research grade
NeutralGolden Knights at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO royalestake | Golden Knightsavg 54¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | +$23.16 | 2% 3-184 (187) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Utahavg 45¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$25.62 | 51% 455-429 (884) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Utahavg 45¢ | $49.5 | $50.6 | +$1.1 | 48% 668-712 (1380) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Utahavg 45¢ | $33.78 | $34.53 | +$0.75 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Utahavg 45¢ | $6.95 | $2.32 | -$0.05 | 55% 624-512 (1136) |
Invested
$2,501.09
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$23.16
Record
2%
3-184 (187)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,152.98
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$25.62
Record
51%
455-429 (884)
Invested
$49.5
Value
$50.6
PnL
+$1.1
Record
48%
668-712 (1380)
Invested
$33.78
Value
$34.53
PnL
+$0.75
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$6.95
Value
$2.32
PnL
-$0.05
Record
55%
624-512 (1136)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.