USC vs. Indiana: O/U 49.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 55¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 20%
$1.7K
-$5.14
Research grade
NeutralOver at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 53¢ | $884.4 | $909.84 | +$25.44 | 57% 3234-2442 (5676) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 46.9¢ | $509.27 | $484.36 | -$19.91 | 51% 505-476 (981) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Underavg 47¢ | $303.71 | $293.86 | -$9.85 | 48% 1454-1600 (3054) |
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $33.12 | $32.4 | -$0.72 | 54% 15-13 (28) |
BA Bagwell306CTR<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $4.63 | $4.53 | -$0.1 | 4% 4-88 (92) |
Invested
$884.4
Value
$909.84
PnL
+$25.44
Record
57%
3234-2442 (5676)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$509.27
Value
$484.36
PnL
-$19.91
Record
51%
505-476 (981)
Invested
$303.71
Value
$293.86
PnL
-$9.85
Record
48%
1454-1600 (3054)
Invested
$33.12
Value
$32.4
PnL
-$0.72
Record
54%
15-13 (28)
Invested
$4.63
Value
$4.53
PnL
-$0.1
Record
4%
4-88 (92)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.