Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (60%) · Nuggets at 53¢ · $316 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Nuggets
5
Nuggets 60%
$315.67
$2.3
51.9¢ → 52.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNuggets at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JA JAMJAMJAM4 | Nuggetsavg 52¢ | $250.59 | $253 | +$2.41 | 1% 5-496 (501) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Grizzliesavg 48¢ | $40.13 | $39.3 | -$0.84 | 45% 262-316 (578) |
FO forecastication4<$100 | Nuggetsavg 50¢ | $15 | $15.6 | +$0.6 | 18% 48-217 (265) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Nuggetsavg 51¢ | $5.1 | $5.2 | +$0.1 | 57% 3221-2429 (5650) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Grizzliesavg 47¢ | $2.55 | $2.58 | +$0.03 | 48% 1286-1384 (2670) |
Invested
$250.59
Value
$253
PnL
+$2.41
Record
1%
5-496 (501)
Invested
$40.13
Value
$39.3
PnL
-$0.84
Record
45%
262-316 (578)
Invested
$15
Value
$15.6
PnL
+$0.6
Record
18%
48-217 (265)
Invested
$5.1
Value
$5.2
PnL
+$0.1
Record
57%
3221-2429 (5650)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.58
PnL
+$0.03
Record
48%
1286-1384 (2670)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.