Spread: Trail Blazers (-2.5)

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (31%) · Trail Blazers at 52¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 12

Trail Blazers52¢Thunder48¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 31%

Total Value

$16.3K

Combined PnL

$249.24

Smart Money Entry

50.2¢ → 51.5¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

4 of 13 top traders (31%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers52%

Thunder49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers4 traders

Total Value$12.0K

Total Shares23,262

Combined PnL+$312.62

Thunder9 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares8,895

Combined PnL-$63.37

Trail Blazers — 31%Thunder — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTrail Blazers 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justwins	Trail Blazersavg 50.4¢	$11.3K	$11.6K	+$258.16	50% 110-110 (220)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Thunderavg 49.4¢	$3.9K	$3.8K	-$69.04	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
LI LightParadox	Trail Blazersavg 44.3¢	$294.94	$342.66	+$47.72	30% 385-880 (1265)
VeryLucky888CTR	Thunderavg 49¢	$559.33	$242.5	+$34.05	52% 472-438 (910)
38 38791873984189CTR	Thunderavg 55¢	$165	$147	-$18	48% 1401-1536 (2937)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Thunderavg 55¢	$66.55	$59.29	-$7.26	18% 48-217 (265)
MA MadridTime<$100	Trail Blazersavg 46¢	$47.26	$52.91	+$5.65	31% 389-859 (1248)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Thunderavg 54¢	$54	$49	-$5	67% 1657-812 (2469)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Thunderavg 49¢	$39.98	$39.58	-$0.41	45% 267-323 (590)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Thunderavg 49¢	$18.33	$10.82	+$2.69	49% 678-717 (1395)
HI hi774c<$100	Trail Blazersavg 45¢	$8.19	$9.28	+$1.09	14% 76-472 (548)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Thunderavg 49¢	$5.64	$5.59	-$0.06	38% 358-588 (946)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Thunderavg 56¢	$2.8	$2.45	-$0.35	33% 307-627 (934)

justwins

Trail Blazers

Invested

$11,316.84

Value

$11.6K

PnL

+$258.16

Record

50%

110-110 (220)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Thunder

Invested

$3,850.8

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$69.04

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

LightParadox

Trail Blazers

Invested

$294.94

Value

$342.66

PnL

+$47.72

Record

30%

385-880 (1265)

VeryLucky888CTR

Thunder

Invested

$559.33

Value

$242.5

PnL

+$34.05

Record

52%

472-438 (910)

38791873984189CTR

Thunder

Invested

$165

Value

$147

PnL

-$18

Record

48%

1401-1536 (2937)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$66.55

Value

$59.29

PnL

-$7.26

Record

18%

48-217 (265)

MadridTime<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$47.26

Value

$52.91

PnL

+$5.65

Record

31%

389-859 (1248)

RLWGCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$54

Value

$49

PnL

-$5

Record

67%

1657-812 (2469)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$39.98

Value

$39.58

PnL

-$0.41

Record

45%

267-323 (590)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$18.33

Value

$10.82

PnL

+$2.69

Record

49%

678-717 (1395)

hi774c<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$8.19

Value

$9.28

PnL

+$1.09

Record

14%

76-472 (548)

sentrioCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$5.64

Value

$5.59

PnL

-$0.06

Record

38%

358-588 (946)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.45

PnL

-$0.35

Record

33%

307-627 (934)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

4 of 13 top traders (31%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTrail Blazers 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.