Spread: Colts (-3.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Colts (40%) · Colts at 51¢ · $611 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Colts
5
Colts 40%
$611.02
$18.46
46.7¢ → 50.5¢
+8% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralColts at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492 | Coltsavg 45.5¢ | $297.17 | $326.38 | +$29.21 | 0% 0-325 (325) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Dolphinsavg 53.9¢ | $148.15 | $138.83 | -$9.32 | 48% 1352-1466 (2818) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Coltsavg 50¢ | $111.5 | $112.62 | +$1.11 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Dolphinsavg 54¢ | $20.93 | $19.57 | -$1.36 | 22% 33-119 (152) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Dolphinsavg 54.9¢ | $14.82 | $13.64 | -$1.19 | 48% 667-712 (1379) |
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492Invested
$297.17
Value
$326.38
PnL
+$29.21
Record
0%
0-325 (325)
Invested
$148.15
Value
$138.83
PnL
-$9.32
Record
48%
1352-1466 (2818)
Invested
$111.5
Value
$112.62
PnL
+$1.11
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$20.93
Value
$19.57
PnL
-$1.36
Record
22%
33-119 (152)
Invested
$14.82
Value
$13.64
PnL
-$1.19
Record
48%
667-712 (1379)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.