Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (60%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Northwestern vs. Ohio State: O/U 47.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 41¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 83%
$3.7K
-$21.75
47¢ → 40.5¢
-14% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Under 60%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IC ic4cream | Underavg 52.7¢ | $1.7K | $1.8K | +$107.63 | 3% 12-449 (461) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 47.6¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$85.38 | 52% 597-541 (1138) |
BA Bagwell306CTR | Overavg 47¢ | $439.17 | $411.14 | -$28.03 | 26% 42-118 (160) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 44.3¢ | $235.92 | $234.47 | -$1.45 | 57% 3276-2473 (5749) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 47¢ | $227.48 | $212.96 | -$14.52 | 47% 1681-1866 (3547) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $5.72 | $5.72 | +$0 | 54% 135-114 (249) |
Invested
$1,705.54
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$107.63
Record
3%
12-449 (461)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,140.97
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$85.38
Record
52%
597-541 (1138)
Invested
$439.17
Value
$411.14
PnL
-$28.03
Record
26%
42-118 (160)
Invested
$235.92
Value
$234.47
PnL
-$1.45
Record
57%
3276-2473 (5749)
Invested
$227.48
Value
$212.96
PnL
-$14.52
Record
47%
1681-1866 (3547)
Invested
$5.72
Value
$5.72
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
135-114 (249)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.