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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465 | BreakTheBank | mostlywrong | ndb1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 54% (4827–4032, n=8859) | 41% (589–853, n=1442) | 59% (60–42, n=102) | 63% (1095–632, n=1727) |
| Consensus PnL | $8.2M | $7.7M | $7.5K | $4.6M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #16 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #934 | PM monthly #113 |
| Sides with the consensus | 51% (20 of 39 open) | 71% (42 of 59 open) | 100% (4 of 4 open) | 72% (71 of 98 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | NHL −1 pts, n=136 | — | College Football −15 pts, n=11 | NFL −8 pts, n=147 |
| Settled positions, side won | 59% of 7152 at avg 55¢, ROI +2% | 97% of 593 at avg 53¢, ROI +40% | 43% of 95 at avg 39¢, ROI 0% | 64% of 1406 at avg 64¢, ROI +2% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 17% (won 11% of 1182) | 10% (won 82% of 60) | 53% (won 12% of 50) | 13% (won 14% of 187) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 25% (won 46% of 1753) | 36% (won 98% of 212) | 11% (won 40% of 10) | 19% (won 39% of 269) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 29% (won 66% of 2092) | 35% (won 100% of 205) | 8% (won 63% of 8) | 23% (won 57% of 328) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 30% (won 91% of 2125) | 20% (won 100% of 116) | 28% (won 96% of 27) | 44% (won 94% of 622) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
7 on the same side, 6 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465 | BreakTheBank | mostlywrong | ndb1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-11-08? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $306K | No $255K | — | — |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? opposite sides · consensus No | No $396K | Yes $110K | — | — |
| Giants vs. Eagles: O/U 38.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | Over $17K | Under $208K | — | — |
| Spread: Giants (-4.5) opposite sides · consensus Eagles | Eagles $83K | Giants $67K | — | — |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-11-08? opposite sides · consensus No | No $31K | Yes $16K | — | — |
| Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $1.5K | Yes $16K | — | — |
| Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? same side · consensus No | — | No $421K | — | No $346K |
| Giants vs. Eagles same side · consensus Eagles | Giants $200K | Giants $190K | — | — |
| Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? same side · consensus Yes | — | Yes $306K | — | Yes $12K |
| Spread: Giants (-3.5) same side · consensus Eagles | Giants $19K | Giants $37K | — | — |
| Spread: Chiefs (-9.5) same side · consensus Chiefs | Chiefs $29K | Chiefs $21K | — | — |
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? same side · consensus Yes | No $17 | No $28K | — | — |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? same side · consensus No | No $4.5K | No $2.4K | — | — |