Spread: Giants (-4.5)

14 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Eagles (70%) · Eagles at 59¢ · $263K held · ended Nov 8

Giants42¢Eagles58¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Eagles

Consensus Traders

Eagles 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$262.6K

Combined PnL

-$300.69

Smart Money Entry

58.7¢ → 58.5¢

+0% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralEagles at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Eagles

14 of 20 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Giants42%

Eagles59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Giants6 traders

Total Value$116.0K

Total Shares279,617

Combined PnL+$181.74

Eagles14 traders

Total Value$144.7K

Total Shares247,358

Combined PnL-$482.44

Giants — 30%Eagles — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Eagles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Eagles) and the top 1000 (6 on Giants) disagree here.

whaleEagles 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrGiants 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedEagles 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Giants 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Giantsavg 41.3¢	$92.3K	$92.7K	+$375.02	41% 643-935 (1578)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Eaglesavg 58.8¢	$69.5K	$69.1K	-$408.93	53% 6638-5848 (12486)
BI biying88888	Eaglesavg 59¢	$21.7K	$21.5K	-$184	48% 219-239 (458)
TA takeormakeCTR	Giantsavg 41.8¢	$19.3K	$19.2K	-$126.3	52% 5499-5133 (10632)
HO HomeRunHazard	Eaglesavg 58¢	$16.9K	$17.1K	+$146.08	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
Painfulvoid	Eaglesavg 58.7¢	$12.7K	$12.7K	-$50.1	53% 2025-1767 (3792)
VeryLucky888	Eaglesavg 57.8¢	$7.5K	$7.6K	+$94.62	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
BA Bagwell306	Eaglesavg 59¢	$5.9K	$5.8K	-$49.99	48% 4748-5241 (9989)
ME metski29	Eaglesavg 59.7¢	$4.7K	$4.6K	-$96.6	45% 374-453 (827)
UB ubetteruuuuCTR	Giantsavg 42.3¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$60.5	48% 214-229 (443)
38 38791873984189	Eaglesavg 58¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$23.25	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
AN Anon455	Eaglesavg 57.5¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$40	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
SU SunlineTickerARB<$100	Giantsavg 43.7¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$16.52	54% 5358-4572 (9930)
└ Giants leg	Giantsavg 43.7¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$16.52
└ Eagles leg	Eaglesavg 58¢	$494.16	$494.16	-$0
AB abc51001CTR	Giantsavg 42¢	$846.68	$836.6	-$10.08	59% 67-47 (114)
nigiri99	Eaglesavg 59¢	$633.07	$627.7	-$5.37	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
65 6512395314597884	Eaglesavg 58¢	$348	$354	+$6	51% 5614-5443 (11057)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Giantsavg 41¢	$164	$166	+$2	51% 2075-2021 (4096)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Giantsavg 41¢	$131.69	$133.29	+$1.61	50% 5167-5068 (10235)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Eaglesavg 57¢	$84.36	$86.58	+$2.22	57% 17050-13014 (30064)
PA Pan9X<$100	Eaglesavg 57.3¢	$55.6	$50.26	+$0.97	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
IC ic4cream<$100	Eaglesavg 59.7¢	$28.07	$27.49	-$0.58	56% 2872-2262 (5134)

BreakTheBankCTR

Giants

Invested

$92,341.49

Value

$92.7K

PnL

+$375.02

Record

41%

643-935 (1578)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Eagles

Invested

$69,546.36

Value

$69.1K

PnL

-$408.93

Record

53%

6638-5848 (12486)

biying88888

Eagles

Invested

$21,716.09

Value

$21.5K

PnL

-$184

Record

48%

219-239 (458)

takeormakeCTR

Giants

Invested

$19,285.58

Value

$19.2K

PnL

-$126.3

Record

52%

5499-5133 (10632)

HomeRunHazard

Eagles

Invested

$16,944.98

Value

$17.1K

PnL

+$146.08

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

Painfulvoid

Eagles

Invested

$12,749.87

Value

$12.7K

PnL

-$50.1

Record

53%

2025-1767 (3792)

VeryLucky888

Eagles

Invested

$7,495.74

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$94.62

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

Bagwell306

Eagles

Invested

$5,899.41

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$49.99

Record

48%

4748-5241 (9989)

metski29

Eagles

Invested

$4,707.19

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$96.6

Record

45%

374-453 (827)

ubetteruuuuCTR

Giants

Invested

$3,090

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$60.5

Record

48%

214-229 (443)

38791873984189

Eagles

Invested

$2,695.58

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$23.25

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Anon455

Eagles

Invested

$2,300

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$40

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

SunlineTickerARB<$100

Giants

Invested

$1,939.61

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$16.52

Record

54%

5358-4572 (9930)

Both legs:

Giants$1,445.4543.7¢-$16.52

Eagles$494.1658¢-$0

abc51001CTR

Giants

Invested

$846.68

Value

$836.6

PnL

-$10.08

Record

59%

67-47 (114)

nigiri99

Eagles

Invested

$633.07

Value

$627.7

PnL

-$5.37

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

6512395314597884

Eagles

Invested

$348

Value

$354

PnL

+$6

Record

51%

5614-5443 (11057)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Giants

Invested

$164

Value

$166

PnL

+$2

Record

51%

2075-2021 (4096)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Giants

Invested

$131.69

Value

$133.29

PnL

+$1.61

Record

50%

5167-5068 (10235)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Eagles

Invested

$84.36

Value

$86.58

PnL

+$2.22

Record

57%

17050-13014 (30064)

Pan9X<$100

Eagles

Invested

$55.6

Value

$50.26

PnL

+$0.97

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

ic4cream<$100

Eagles

Invested

$28.07

Value

$27.49

PnL

-$0.58

Record

56%

2872-2262 (5134)

Research grade

NeutralEagles at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Eagles

14 of 20 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Eagles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Eagles) and the top 1000 (6 on Giants) disagree here.

whaleEagles 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrGiants 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedEagles 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Giants 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Eagles wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.