Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-11-08?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 75¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$2.3K
$8.75
74¢ → 74.5¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Late
64h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Yesavg 26.9¢ | $938.86 | $1.1K | -$9.85 | 51% 26991-25572 (52563) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 26.9¢ | $710.33 | $672.63 | -$12.75 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 74¢ | $427.93 | $430.82 | +$2.89 | |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 74¢ | $588.73 | $549.87 | +$3.81 | 58% 47408-34193 (81601) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 74¢ | $291.5 | $293.47 | +$1.97 | 64% 10165-5759 (15924) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 74¢ | $291.22 | $293.19 | +$1.97 | 64% 10163-5703 (15866) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $49.65 | $49.98 | +$0.34 | 50% 26346-25970 (52316) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 73.5¢ | $33.5 | $34 | +$0.5 | 48% 62298-67159 (129457) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $24.79 | $24.96 | +$0.17 | 58% 21639-15721 (37360) |
Invested
$938.86
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$9.85
Record
51%
26991-25572 (52563)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$588.73
Value
$549.87
PnL
+$3.81
Record
58%
47408-34193 (81601)
Invested
$291.5
Value
$293.47
PnL
+$1.97
Record
64%
10165-5759 (15924)
Invested
$291.22
Value
$293.19
PnL
+$1.97
Record
64%
10163-5703 (15866)
Invested
$49.65
Value
$49.98
PnL
+$0.34
Record
50%
26346-25970 (52316)
Invested
$33.5
Value
$34
PnL
+$0.5
Record
48%
62298-67159 (129457)
Invested
$24.79
Value
$24.96
PnL
+$0.17
Record
58%
21639-15721 (37360)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.