Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 79¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.1K
$0.77
78.5¢ → 78.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Late
55h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 78.8¢ | $742.01 | $734.32 | +$4.71 | 51% 26884-25495 (52379) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 78¢ | $234.71 | $236.21 | +$1.5 | 64% 10152-5754 (15906) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 78¢ | $131.9 | $132.74 | +$0.85 | 64% 10131-5689 (15820) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 19.2¢ | $18.4 | $16.73 | -$6.66 | 48% 62085-66960 (129045) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $16.32 | $16.67 | +$0.37 | 58% 47334-34134 (81468) |
Invested
$742.01
Value
$734.32
PnL
+$4.71
Record
51%
26884-25495 (52379)
Invested
$234.71
Value
$236.21
PnL
+$1.5
Record
64%
10152-5754 (15906)
Invested
$131.9
Value
$132.74
PnL
+$0.85
Record
64%
10131-5689 (15820)
Invested
$18.4
Value
$16.73
PnL
-$6.66
Record
48%
62085-66960 (129045)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$16.32
Value
$16.67
PnL
+$0.37
Record
58%
47334-34134 (81468)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.