Spread: Giants (-3.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Eagles (33%) · Eagles at 55¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 8

Giants46¢Eagles54¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Eagles

Consensus Traders

Eagles 33%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$1.27

Smart Money Entry

54.3¢ → 54.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralEagles at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Eagles

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Giants46%

Eagles55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Giants6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,449

Combined PnL-$15.65

Eagles3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,976

Combined PnL+$14.38

Giants — 67%Eagles — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

54h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Eagles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleEagles 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpGiants 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrGiants 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedGiants 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Giants 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Giantsavg 46¢	$855.01	$845.72	-$9.29	58% 47459-34244 (81703)
AU Aurelius7	Eaglesavg 54.7¢	$811.04	$807.41	+$7.41	47% 274-312 (586)
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319	Eaglesavg 54¢	$185.98	$187.7	+$1.72	55% 3128-2516 (5644)
38 38791873984189CTR	Giantsavg 46¢	$116.53	$115.39	-$1.15	48% 62365-67229 (129594)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Eaglesavg 51¢	$76.5	$81.75	+$5.25	53% 12582-11279 (23861)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Giantsavg 49¢	$73.5	$68.25	-$5.25	46% 8761-10456 (19217)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Giantsavg 45¢	$44.5	$45	+$0.49	64% 10175-5710 (15885)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Giantsavg 46¢	$37.93	$37.51	-$0.41	64% 2035-1134 (3169)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Giantsavg 46¢	$4.14	$4.1	-$0.05	54% 10426-8742 (19168)

VeryLucky888CTR

Giants

Invested

$855.01

Value

$845.72

PnL

-$9.29

Record

58%

47459-34244 (81703)

Aurelius7

Eagles

Invested

$811.04

Value

$807.41

PnL

+$7.41

Record

47%

274-312 (586)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319

Eagles

Invested

$185.98

Value

$187.7

PnL

+$1.72

Record

55%

3128-2516 (5644)

38791873984189CTR

Giants

Invested

$116.53

Value

$115.39

PnL

-$1.15

Record

48%

62365-67229 (129594)

BoomLaLa<$100

Eagles

Invested

$76.5

Value

$81.75

PnL

+$5.25

Record

53%

12582-11279 (23861)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Giants

Invested

$73.5

Value

$68.25

PnL

-$5.25

Record

46%

8761-10456 (19217)

NM-PCTR<$100

Giants

Invested

$44.5

Value

$45

PnL

+$0.49

Record

64%

10175-5710 (15885)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Giants

Invested

$37.93

Value

$37.51

PnL

-$0.41

Record

64%

2035-1134 (3169)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Giants

Invested

$4.14

Value

$4.1

PnL

-$0.05

Record

54%

10426-8742 (19168)

Research grade

NeutralEagles at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Eagles

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

54h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Eagles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleEagles 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpGiants 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrGiants 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedGiants 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Giants 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Eagles wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.