Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
madmartigan5primmRN1S-Works
Record (consensus markets)no settled market49% (1224–1251, n=2475)48% (18678–20261, n=38939)75% (2546–856, n=3402)
Consensus PnL—$3.6M$14.8M$3.7M
Tracked asPM monthly #895PM monthly #63PM monthly #37 + pinnedPM monthly #70
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position86% (6 of 7 open)65% (110 of 169 open)67% (2 of 3 open)
Strongest topics
  • Esports +5 pts n=492, ROI +4%
  • MLB +4 pts n=308, ROI −2%
  • NBA +3 pts n=383, ROI +1%
Weakest topic———Crypto −1 pts, n=46
Settled positions, side won88% of 50 at avg 38¢, ROI +52%99% of 1027 at avg 50¢, ROI +51%94% of 26124 at avg 59¢, ROI +35%75% of 2256 at avg 72¢, ROI +2%
Entries under 30¢30% (won 80% of 15)5% (won 94% of 51)10% (won 57% of 2594)6% (won 14% of 145)
Entries 30–50¢44% (won 86% of 22)41% (won 99% of 421)22% (won 94% of 5704)16% (won 48% of 367)
Entries 50–70¢24% (won 100% of 12)49% (won 99% of 508)35% (won 99% of 9204)23% (won 60% of 509)
Entries 70¢ and up2% (won 100% of 1)5% (won 100% of 47)33% (won 100% of 8622)55% (won 96% of 1235)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

5 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Marketmadmartigan5primmRN1S-Works
Miami (FL) vs. Notre Dame
same side · consensus Notre Dame
—Notre Dame $185KNotre Dame $36K—
Georgia vs. Ole Miss
same side · consensus Georgia
—Georgia $14KGeorgia $5.6K—
Spread: Michigan (-13.5)
same side · consensus Michigan State
—Michigan State $14KMichigan State $5—
Spread: Notre Dame (-6.5)
same side · consensus Notre Dame
—Notre Dame $61Notre Dame $2.7K—
Spread: Florida (-3.5)
same side · consensus Florida
—Oklahoma $34Oklahoma $30—