Spread: Florida (-3.5)

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Oklahoma (82%) · Oklahoma at 69¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 8

Florida32¢Oklahoma68¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Oklahoma

Consensus Traders

Oklahoma 82%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$266.7

Smart Money Entry

49.5¢ → 68.5¢

+38% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralOklahoma at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Oklahoma

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Florida32%

Oklahoma69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Oklahoma9 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,356

Combined PnL+$646.75

Florida2 traders

Total Value$577.99

Total Shares1,842

Combined PnL-$380.05

Oklahoma — 82%Florida — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Oklahomaavg 47¢	$659.27	$1.0K	+$378.73	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
HO HomeRunHazard	Oklahomaavg 48¢	$444.31	$629.44	+$185.13	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
38 38791873984189CTR	Floridaavg 52¢	$820.82	$402.51	-$418.31	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Oklahomaavg 60¢	$300	$340	+$40	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
BO Bozos14	Oklahomaavg 49¢	$127.4	$192.4	+$65	49% 148-152 (300)
FO forecastication4CTR	Floridaavg 52¢	$137.22	$175.48	+$38.26	50% 1423-1429 (2852)
LI LightParadox<$100	Oklahomaavg 45.7¢	$45.74	$33.5	-$12.24	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
PR primm<$100	Oklahomaavg 44.7¢	$44.74	$33.5	-$11.24	47% 1317-1506 (2823)
PA Pan9X<$100	Oklahomaavg 60¢	$32.4	$32.68	+$0.28	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
RN1<$100	Oklahomaavg 60¢	$12.77	$14.47	+$1.7	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
VE Venusian<$100	Oklahomaavg 45.7¢	$2.29	$1.68	-$0.61	49% 1844-1936 (3780)

SnakeBall

Oklahoma

Invested

$659.27

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$378.73

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

HomeRunHazard

Oklahoma

Invested

$444.31

Value

$629.44

PnL

+$185.13

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

38791873984189CTR

Florida

Invested

$820.82

Value

$402.51

PnL

-$418.31

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Oklahoma

Invested

$300

Value

$340

PnL

+$40

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

Bozos14

Oklahoma

Invested

$127.4

Value

$192.4

PnL

+$65

Record

49%

148-152 (300)

forecastication4CTR

Florida

Invested

$137.22

Value

$175.48

PnL

+$38.26

Record

50%

1423-1429 (2852)

LightParadox<$100

Oklahoma

Invested

$45.74

Value

$33.5

PnL

-$12.24

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

primm<$100

Oklahoma

Invested

$44.74

Value

$33.5

PnL

-$11.24

Record

47%

1317-1506 (2823)

Pan9X<$100

Oklahoma

Invested

$32.4

Value

$32.68

PnL

+$0.28

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

RN1<$100

Oklahoma

Invested

$12.77

Value

$14.47

PnL

+$1.7

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

Venusian<$100

Oklahoma

Invested

$2.29

Value

$1.68

PnL

-$0.61

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

Research grade

NeutralOklahoma at 69%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Oklahoma

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Oklahoma wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.