Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Michigan State, while the market favors Michigan (55%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Michigan (-13.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Michigan State (70%) · Michigan State at 46¢ · $27K held · ends Nov 8

Michigan55¢Michigan State45¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Michigan State

Consensus Traders

Michigan State 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.6K

Combined PnL

-$255.82

Smart Money Entry

45.9¢ → 45.5¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralMichigan State at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Michigan State

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Michigan 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Michigan55%

Michigan State46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Michigan State7 traders

Total Value$22.1K

Total Shares48,815

Combined PnL-$237.16

Michigan3 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares6,591

Combined PnL-$18.66

Michigan State — 70%Michigan — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Michigan State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Michigan) and the top 1000 (9 on Michigan State) disagree here.

whaleMichigan State 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrMichigan State 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedMichigan 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Michigan State 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Michigan Stateavg 46.2¢	$12.2K	$11.9K	-$306.21	54% 18479-15550 (34029)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Michigan Stateavg 45¢	$5.4K	$5.5K	+$120.53	49% 451-468 (919)
HI hi774cCTR	Michigan Stateavg 46¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	+$28.28	46% 5316-6151 (11467)
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319	Michiganavg 54¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$0	55% 3129-2517 (5646)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Michiganavg 55.5¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	+$8.55	47% 533-610 (1143)
nigiri99CTR	Michigan Stateavg 46.7¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$47.17	46% 8770-10463 (19233)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Michiganavg 53.9¢	$984.95	$979.21	+$5.33	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
└ Michigan leg	Michiganavg 53.9¢	$505.45	$506.71	-$3.42
└ Michigan State leg	Michigan Stateavg 45.7¢	$479.5	$472.5	+$8.75
38 38791873984189CTR	Michigan Stateavg 46.2¢	$1.3K	$684.82	-$23.71	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Michigan Stateavg 47¢	$196.33	$187.97	-$8.35	51% 38228-37447 (75675)
VeryLucky888	Michiganavg 49¢	$1.0K	$24.56	-$27.2	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Michigan Stateavg 46.5¢	$16.67	$16.13	-$0.54	58% 21689-15792 (37481)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Michigan State

Invested

$12,201.16

Value

$11.9K

PnL

-$306.21

Record

54%

18479-15550 (34029)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Michigan State

Invested

$5,424.07

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$120.53

Record

49%

451-468 (919)

hi774cCTR

Michigan State

Invested

$2,602

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$28.28

Record

46%

5316-6151 (11467)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319

Michigan

Invested

$1,799.82

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

3129-2517 (5646)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Michigan

Invested

$1,793.98

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$8.55

Record

47%

533-610 (1143)

nigiri99CTR

Michigan State

Invested

$1,263.52

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$47.17

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

NM-PARB<$100

Michigan

Invested

$984.95

Value

$979.21

PnL

+$5.33

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

Both legs:

Michigan$505.4553.9¢-$3.42

Michigan State$479.545.7¢+$8.75

38791873984189CTR

Michigan State

Invested

$1,337.25

Value

$684.82

PnL

-$23.71

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

SnakeBallCTR

Michigan State

Invested

$196.33

Value

$187.97

PnL

-$8.35

Record

51%

38228-37447 (75675)

VeryLucky888

Michigan

Invested

$1,028.55

Value

$24.56

PnL

-$27.2

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Michigan State

Invested

$16.67

Value

$16.13

PnL

-$0.54

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

Research grade

NeutralMichigan State at 46%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Michigan State

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Michigan 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Michigan State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Michigan) and the top 1000 (9 on Michigan State) disagree here.

whaleMichigan State 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrMichigan State 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedMichigan 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Michigan State 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Michigan State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.