PolyConsensus

Elections: what top Polymarket traders hold

Races, primaries and nominations, from the 2026 US midterms to elections abroad. These are the Elections markets on Polymarket in which at least five of the top traders we track hold a position, with the side most of them hold (the consensus), what share of them hold it and the market's own price for that side.

A consensus is a head count of who holds what, not a probability, and following it did not pay on average in our backtests — see how it works. For the 2026 US midterms by race, see the midterm elections page.

Live consensus markets
500
Recently settled, consensus right
12 of 21
Prices as of
Oct 25, 07:19 UTC

Live Elections consensus markets (500)

Showing the 100 markets with the most traders of 500; the markets page has them all.

Top traders in Elections

Tracked traders with 10 or more settled Elections consensus markets whose side won more often than its entry price implied, ranked by how much (on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short lucky run does not rank first). These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero.

  1. 1.Medo3D+42 ptsside won 100% of 34 · avg entry 58¢ · ROI +21%
  2. 2.JAMJAMJAM4+33 ptsside won 100% of 201 · avg entry 67¢ · ROI +21%
  3. 3.defillama7+43 ptsside won 100% of 25 · avg entry 57¢ · ROI +33%
  4. 4.PeAPAnieniLiala+35 ptsside won 95% of 64 · avg entry 60¢ · ROI +26%
  5. 5.PROBABILITYTRADER+27 ptsside won 80% of 336 · avg entry 53¢ · ROI +1%
  6. 6.0xc938fejdifuiwfs+36 ptsside won 96% of 27 · avg entry 60¢ · ROI +36%
  7. 7.olylak+49 ptsside won 75% of 12 · avg entry 26¢ · ROI +33%
  8. 8.schizohedgehog+44 ptsside won 75% of 16 · avg entry 31¢ · ROI +15%
  9. 9.0xa2dCcd83971D56fb4e7cE45C491a968b29a249f9-1771568307503+33 ptsside won 96% of 27 · avg entry 63¢ · ROI +28%
  10. 10.wan123+37 ptsside won 100% of 16 · avg entry 63¢ · ROI +22%

Recently settled Elections markets

What the tracked traders held when each market settled, and how it came out. A handful of markets says little about the next one.

Holders update as the tracked traders trade, and prices refresh about once a minute. Only wallets with a position of at least 1 share count as holders; the side is the one with the most money behind it among holders with $100 or more in the market. PolyConsensus is not affiliated with Polymarket and this is not investment advice. More: all topics, the trader leaderboard, large trades.