Spread: Notre Dame (-6.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Notre Dame (43%) · Notre Dame at 56¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 8

Notre Dame56¢Miami (FL)44¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Notre Dame

Consensus Traders

Notre Dame 43%

Total Value

$15.5K

Combined PnL

$117.61

Smart Money Entry

54.9¢ → 56.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNotre Dame at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Notre Dame

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Notre Dame56%

Miami (FL)44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Notre Dame3 traders

Total Value$14.2K

Total Shares25,619

Combined PnL+$155.5

Miami (FL)4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,837

Combined PnL-$37.89

Notre Dame — 43%Miami (FL) — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Notre Dame. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Miami (FL)) and the top 1000 (6 on Notre Dame) disagree here.

whaleMiami (FL) 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMiami (FL) 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedMiami (FL) 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Notre Dame 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BA bands1	Notre Dameavg 55¢	$13.9K	$14.0K	+$126.26	49% 419-429 (848)
PU purplegattoCTR	Miami (FL)avg 45.7¢	$979.86	$942.54	-$37.33	49% 6379-6554 (12933)
VeryLucky888CTR	Miami (FL)avg 44¢	$229.64	$229.64	+$0	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
SN SnakeBall	Notre Dameavg 46¢	$144.8	$173.68	+$28.93	51% 38228-37447 (75675)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Miami (FL)avg 45¢	$70.98	$70.19	-$0.79	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100	Notre Dameavg 55¢	$34.3	$34.61	+$0.31	46% 930-1099 (2029)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Miami (FL)avg 43¢	$6.45	$6.6	+$0.23	48% 62396-67251 (129647)

bands1

Notre Dame

Invested

$13,888.65

Value

$14.0K

PnL

+$126.26

Record

49%

419-429 (848)

purplegattoCTR

Miami (FL)

Invested

$979.86

Value

$942.54

PnL

-$37.33

Record

49%

6379-6554 (12933)

VeryLucky888CTR

Miami (FL)

Invested

$229.64

Value

$229.64

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

SnakeBall

Notre Dame

Invested

$144.8

Value

$173.68

PnL

+$28.93

Record

51%

38228-37447 (75675)

VenusianCTR<$100

Miami (FL)

Invested

$70.98

Value

$70.19

PnL

-$0.79

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100

Notre Dame

Invested

$34.3

Value

$34.61

PnL

+$0.31

Record

46%

930-1099 (2029)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Miami (FL)

Invested

$6.45

Value

$6.6

PnL

+$0.23

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

Research grade

NeutralNotre Dame at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Notre Dame

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Notre Dame. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Miami (FL)) and the top 1000 (6 on Notre Dame) disagree here.

whaleMiami (FL) 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMiami (FL) 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedMiami (FL) 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Notre Dame 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Notre Dame wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.