Miami (FL) vs. Notre Dame

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Notre Dame (44%) · Notre Dame at 72¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 8

Miami (FL)28¢Notre Dame72¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Notre Dame

Consensus Traders

Notre Dame 44%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.1K

Combined PnL

$316.45

Smart Money Entry

68.4¢ → 71.5¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNotre Dame at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Notre Dame

4 of 9 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Miami (FL)28%

Notre Dame72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Notre Dame4 traders

Total Value$14.4K

Total Shares20,150

Combined PnL+$614.42

Miami (FL)5 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares11,768

Combined PnL-$297.97

Notre Dame — 44%Miami (FL) — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

65h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Notre Dame. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Notre Dame) and the top 1000 (8 on Miami (FL)) disagree here.

whaleMiami (FL) 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNotre Dame 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNotre Dame 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNotre Dame 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Miami (FL) 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Notre Dameavg 68.2¢	$10.5K	$11.0K	+$603.56	46% 513-594 (1107)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Notre Dameavg 65.6¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	-$22.95	54% 18302-15402 (33704)
└ Notre Dame leg	Notre Dameavg 65.6¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$154.38
└ Miami (FL) leg	Miami (FL)avg 33.3¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$177.33
65 6512395314597884CTR	Miami (FL)avg 33.1¢	$3.0K	$2.6K	-$420.46	51% 4821-4679 (9500)
VeryLucky888	Notre Dameavg 67.3¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$15	58% 47020-33905 (80925)
HI hi774c	Notre Dameavg 72¢	$956.57	$949.93	-$6.64	46% 5252-6094 (11346)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Notre Dameavg 65¢	$571.42	$579.73	+$8.31	51% 37954-37202 (75156)
└ Notre Dame leg	Notre Dameavg 65¢	$364.84	$401.32	+$36.48
└ Miami (FL) leg	Miami (FL)avg 33¢	$206.58	$178.41	-$28.17
FL FlaznorpCTR	Miami (FL)avg 28.6¢	$410.85	$408.96	-$1.89	51% 26298-24932 (51230)
NM NM-P	Notre Dameavg 71¢	$355	$357.5	+$2.5	64% 10064-5621 (15685)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Miami (FL)avg 30.5¢	$457.25	$183.2	+$153.95	69% 7246-3212 (10458)
38 38791873984189CTR	Miami (FL)avg 35.4¢	$154.56	$127.35	-$27.21	48% 61710-66575 (128285)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Miami (FL)avg 31.7¢	$27.09	$24.74	-$2.35	58% 21353-15491 (36844)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Notre Dame

Invested

$10,452.06

Value

$11.0K

PnL

+$603.56

Record

46%

513-594 (1107)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Notre Dame

Invested

$2,797.08

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$22.95

Record

54%

18302-15402 (33704)

Both legs:

Notre Dame$1,557.465.6¢+$154.38

Miami (FL)$1,239.6833.3¢-$177.33

6512395314597884CTR

Miami (FL)

Invested

$3,030.13

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$420.46

Record

51%

4821-4679 (9500)

VeryLucky888

Notre Dame

Invested

$2,130

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$15

Record

58%

47020-33905 (80925)

hi774c

Notre Dame

Invested

$956.57

Value

$949.93

PnL

-$6.64

Record

46%

5252-6094 (11346)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Notre Dame

Invested

$571.42

Value

$579.73

PnL

+$8.31

Record

51%

37954-37202 (75156)

Both legs:

Notre Dame$364.8465¢+$36.48

Miami (FL)$206.5833¢-$28.17

FlaznorpCTR

Miami (FL)

Invested

$410.85

Value

$408.96

PnL

-$1.89

Record

51%

26298-24932 (51230)

NM-P

Notre Dame

Invested

$355

Value

$357.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

64%

10064-5621 (15685)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Miami (FL)

Invested

$457.25

Value

$183.2

PnL

+$153.95

Record

69%

7246-3212 (10458)

38791873984189CTR

Miami (FL)

Invested

$154.56

Value

$127.35

PnL

-$27.21

Record

48%

61710-66575 (128285)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Miami (FL)

Invested

$27.09

Value

$24.74

PnL

-$2.35

Record

58%

21353-15491 (36844)

Research grade

NeutralNotre Dame at 72%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Notre Dame

4 of 9 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

65h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Notre Dame. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Notre Dame) and the top 1000 (8 on Miami (FL)) disagree here.

whaleMiami (FL) 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNotre Dame 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNotre Dame 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNotre Dame 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Miami (FL) 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Notre Dame wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.