Georgia vs. Ole Miss

23 of 33 top Polymarket traders hold Georgia (70%) · Georgia at 98¢ · $123K held · ended Nov 8

Georgia98¢Ole Miss2¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Georgia

Consensus Traders

Georgia 70%

Total Value

$123.1K

Combined PnL

$12.2K

Smart Money Entry

68¢ → 98.3¢

+44% since entry · 23 traders

Research grade

NeutralGeorgia at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Georgia

23 of 33 top traders (70%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Georgia98%

Ole Miss2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Georgia23 traders

Total Value$111.1K

Total Shares113,733

Combined PnL+$30.1K

Ole Miss10 traders

Total Value$12.1K

Total Shares61,545

Combined PnL$-17.8K

Georgia — 70%Ole Miss — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

47h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Georgia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOle Miss 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrGeorgia 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Ole Miss 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ET ethanaz	Georgiaavg 70.6¢	$13.4K	$18.3K	+$4.9K	49% 730-758 (1488)
GM gmpm2	Georgiaavg 63¢	$10.9K	$16.7K	+$5.8K	53% 372-326 (698)
0xheavy888	Georgiaavg 62¢	$9.7K	$15.4K	+$5.7K	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
PR primm	Georgiaavg 65¢	$9.3K	$14.0K	+$4.8K	47% 1317-1506 (2823)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Ole Missavg 30.6¢	$19.7K	$11.5K	$-8.2K	48% 405-446 (851)
65 6512395314597884	Georgiaavg 72.6¢	$7.8K	$10.6K	+$2.8K	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
EL Electricy	Georgiaavg 62¢	$4.8K	$7.5K	+$2.6K	62% 389-239 (628)
TA takeormake	Georgiaavg 80.6¢	$6.0K	$7.3K	+$1.3K	52% 5134-4713 (9847)
VI vibing123	Georgiaavg 65.8¢	$3.8K	$5.6K	+$1.9K	52% 1674-1564 (3238)
RN1	Georgiaavg 76.7¢	$6.9K	$5.5K	$-1.3K	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Georgiaavg 62.3¢	$2.6K	$4.0K	+$1.4K	55% 3748-3063 (6811)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Georgiaavg 73.9¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$34.32	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
0X 0xfFFF6537	Georgiaavg 83¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$203.5	49% 1142-1178 (2320)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be	Georgiaavg 63¢	$411.47	$642.35	+$230.88	49% 386-404 (790)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Georgiaavg 86.2¢	$552.25	$629.73	+$77.48	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
BI BillBenter2026	Georgiaavg 78.2¢	$484.19	$608.79	+$124.6	57% 19479-14427 (33906)
JU justaluckydude	Georgiaavg 88¢	$462.88	$517.32	+$54.44	53% 12378-10927 (23305)
OM omnibus-076daa	Georgiaavg 95¢	$452.81	$459.44	+$6.63	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Ole Missavg 38¢	$6.9K	$301.04	$-6.6K	46% 1795-2102 (3897)
PO PowerSupplyUnit	Georgiaavg 69.6¢	$153.66	$215.23	+$61.58	60% 255-168 (423)
PT PT-S7	Georgiaavg 76.9¢	$180.46	$168.93	+$30.46	49% 3284-3450 (6734)
nigiri99CTR	Ole Missavg 38¢	$752.4	$108.9	-$643.5	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
13 13897651<$100	Georgiaavg 86¢	$68.8	$78.68	+$9.88	56% 8963-7033 (15996)
PA Pan9X	Georgiaavg 81¢	$280.49	$58.32	-$115.11	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
PU purplegattoCTR	Ole Missavg 38¢	$1.2K	$53.79	$-1.2K	49% 6418-6597 (13015)

ethanaz

Georgia

Invested

$13,374.72

Value

$18.3K

PnL

+$4.9K

Record

49%

730-758 (1488)

gmpm2

Georgia

Invested

$10,914.75

Value

$16.7K

PnL

+$5.8K

Record

53%

372-326 (698)

0xheavy888

Georgia

Invested

$9,687.48

Value

$15.4K

PnL

+$5.7K

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

primm

Georgia

Invested

$9,285.71

Value

$14.0K

PnL

+$4.8K

Record

47%

1317-1506 (2823)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Ole Miss

Invested

$19,681.63

Value

$11.5K

PnL

$-8.2K

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

6512395314597884

Georgia

Invested

$7,841.62

Value

$10.6K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

Electricy

Georgia

Invested

$4,827.82

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

62%

389-239 (628)

takeormake

Georgia

Invested

$6,000.71

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

52%

5134-4713 (9847)

vibing123

Georgia

Invested

$3,770.85

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

52%

1674-1564 (3238)

RN1

Georgia

Invested

$6,874.39

Value

$5.5K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

JAMJAMJAM4

Georgia

Invested

$2,604.29

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

55%

3748-3063 (6811)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Georgia

Invested

$1,638.18

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$34.32

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

0xfFFF6537

Georgia

Invested

$1,220

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$203.5

Record

49%

1142-1178 (2320)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be

Georgia

Invested

$411.47

Value

$642.35

PnL

+$230.88

Record

49%

386-404 (790)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Georgia

Invested

$552.25

Value

$629.73

PnL

+$77.48

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

BillBenter2026

Georgia

Invested

$484.19

Value

$608.79

PnL

+$124.6

Record

57%

19479-14427 (33906)

justaluckydude

Georgia

Invested

$462.88

Value

$517.32

PnL

+$54.44

Record

53%

12378-10927 (23305)

omnibus-076daa

Georgia

Invested

$452.81

Value

$459.44

PnL

+$6.63

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Ole Miss

Invested

$6,931.24

Value

$301.04

PnL

$-6.6K

Record

46%

1795-2102 (3897)

PowerSupplyUnit

Georgia

Invested

$153.66

Value

$215.23

PnL

+$61.58

Record

60%

255-168 (423)

PT-S7

Georgia

Invested

$180.46

Value

$168.93

PnL

+$30.46

Record

49%

3284-3450 (6734)

nigiri99CTR

Ole Miss

Invested

$752.4

Value

$108.9

PnL

-$643.5

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

13897651<$100

Georgia

Invested

$68.8

Value

$78.68

PnL

+$9.88

Record

56%

8963-7033 (15996)

Pan9X

Georgia

Invested

$280.49

Value

$58.32

PnL

-$115.11

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

purplegattoCTR

Ole Miss

Invested

$1,238.84

Value

$53.79

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

49%

6418-6597 (13015)

Research grade

NeutralGeorgia at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Georgia

23 of 33 top traders (70%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

47h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Georgia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOle Miss 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrGeorgia 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Ole Miss 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Georgia wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.3%

98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.