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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
SteveTheFishBreakTheBankRN1omnibus-076daa
Record (consensus markets)no settled market45% (514–627, n=1141)48% (12114–12946, n=25060)50% (13625–13756, n=27381)
Consensus PnL—$10.4M$13.4M$3.4M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #973PM monthly #1PM monthly #17 + pinnedPM monthly #20
Sides with the consensus50% (1 of 2 open)69% (27 of 39 open)63% (24 of 38 open)53% (18 of 34 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yet
  • NFL +51 pts n=121, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=72, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +41 pts n=276, ROI +38%
Weakest topic————
Settled positions, side won—97% of 515 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%94% of 23969 at avg 58¢, ROI +35%91% of 10639 at avg 60¢, ROI +31%
Entries under 30¢—10% (won 85% of 53)10% (won 56% of 2478)8% (won 59% of 860)
Entries 30–50¢—35% (won 98% of 181)22% (won 94% of 5361)21% (won 86% of 2252)
Entries 50–70¢—34% (won 99% of 176)36% (won 99% of 8705)39% (won 94% of 4102)
Entries 70¢ and up—20% (won 100% of 105)31% (won 100% of 7425)32% (won 99% of 3425)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

2 on the same side, 9 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketSteveTheFishBreakTheBankRN1omnibus-076daa
Erste Bank Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Matteo Berrettini
opposite sides · consensus Flavio Cobolli
——Matteo Berrettini $11KFlavio Cobolli $21K
Guayaquil: Tomas Barrios vs Joaquin Aguilar
opposite sides · consensus Joaquin Aguilar
——Joaquin Aguilar $3.5KTomas Barrios $54
Ribadesella CF vs. Real Racing Club: O/U 4.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
——Under $176Over $250
ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: 1st Half O/U 0.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
——Over $340Under $77
W35 Norman, OK: Jenna DeFalco vs Ashley Lahey
opposite sides · consensus Jenna DeFalco
——Jenna DeFalco $229Ashley Lahey $109
M25 Norman, OK: Asahi Harazaki vs Bor Artnak
opposite sides · consensus Bor Artnak
——Bor Artnak $202Asahi Harazaki $20
Curitiba: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Julia Grabher
opposite sides · consensus Maria Lourdes Carle
——Julia Grabher $6Maria Lourdes Carle $103
Sioux Falls: Max Hans Rehberg vs Stefan Kozlov
opposite sides · consensus Max Hans Rehberg
——Max Hans Rehberg $23Stefan Kozlov $7
M25 Las Vegas, NV: Andrew Johnson vs William Jansen
opposite sides · consensus Andrew Johnson
——William Jansen $9Andrew Johnson $18
Al Riyadh Saudi Club vs. Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club: O/U 4.5
same side · consensus Under
——Over $105Over $253
M25 Las Vegas, NV: Andres Santamarta Roig vs Noah Johnston
same side · consensus Andres Santamarta Roig
——Andres Santamarta Roig $7Andres Santamarta Roig $107