Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Andrew Johnson, while the market favors William Jansen (100%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

M25 Las Vegas, NV: Andrew Johnson vs William Jansen

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Andrew Johnson (75%) · Andrew Johnson at 0.1¢ · $16 held · ends Nov 5

Andrew Johnson<1¢William Jansen>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Andrew Johnson

Consensus Traders

Andrew Johnson 75%

Total Value

$16.04

Combined PnL

-$31.18

Research grade

AvoidAndrew Johnson at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Andrew Johnson

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors William Jansen 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Andrew Johnson0%

William Jansen100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

William Jansen1 trader

Total Value$13.5

Total Shares14

Combined PnL+$5.4

Andrew Johnson3 traders

Total Value$2.54

Total Shares102

Combined PnL-$36.58

William Jansen — 25%Andrew Johnson — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1<$100	William Jansenavg 59.7¢	$8.1	$13.5	+$5.4	54% 56053-48184 (104237)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Andrew Johnsonavg 51.5¢	$23.76	$2.06	+$0.31	58% 41266-29916 (71182)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Andrew Johnsonavg 39.9¢	$35.08	$0.44	-$34.64	49% 18854-19262 (38116)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Andrew Johnsonavg 30.3¢	$2.29	$0.04	-$2.25	49% 671-693 (1364)

RN1<$100

William Jansen

Invested

$8.1

Value

$13.5

PnL

+$5.4

Record

54%

56053-48184 (104237)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Andrew Johnson

Invested

$23.76

Value

$2.06

PnL

+$0.31

Record

58%

41266-29916 (71182)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Andrew Johnson

Invested

$35.08

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$34.64

Record

49%

18854-19262 (38116)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Andrew Johnson

Invested

$2.29

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$2.25

Record

49%

671-693 (1364)

Research grade

AvoidAndrew Johnson at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Andrew Johnson

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors William Jansen 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Andrew Johnson wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.