M25 Norman, OK: Asahi Harazaki vs Bor Artnak
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Asahi Harazaki (50%) · Asahi Harazaki at 57¢ · $208 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Asahi Harazaki
2
Asahi Harazaki 50%
$207.92
$62.93
Research grade
NeutralAsahi Harazaki at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554 | Asahi Harazakiavg 39¢ | $140.79 | $205.77 | +$64.98 | 53% 3136-2771 (5907) |
 0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb20dF121CTR<$100 | Bor Artnakavg 97¢ | $4.2 | $2.15 | -$2.05 | 81% 59-14 (73) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.