Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: 1st Half O/U 0.5

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 29

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.1K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

50.9¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares6,326

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Over2 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares2,758

Combined PnL-$2.8

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dashattackerCTR	Underavg 56.9¢	$3.0K	$4.0K	+$1.0K	72% 2343-899 (3242)
ZX zxc368	Overavg 99.9¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$1.37	98% 12846-196 (13042)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 52.1¢	$2.5K	$1.9K	-$547.71	54% 56053-48184 (104237)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.1¢	$1.9K	$1.4K	-$577.1
└ Under leg	Underavg 60.1¢	$526.46	$555.85	+$29.39
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 22¢	$80.85	$180.08	+$99.23	49% 12429-12737 (25166)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Underavg 21.9¢	$61.48	$137.42	+$75.95	58% 28259-20841 (49100)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Underavg 30¢	$61.28	$100.09	+$38.81	49% 18854-19262 (38116)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 11¢	$2.71	$18.83	+$16.13	59% 9718-6703 (16421)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 22.4¢	$8.38	$18.32	+$9.94	57% 13381-10228 (23609)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Overavg 76¢	$12.67	$8.5	-$4.17	50% 33084-32648 (65732)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$5.11	$2.11	-$3	52% 3741-3403 (7144)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Underavg 6¢	$8.75	$0.07	-$8.68	60% 3300-2213 (5513)

dashattackerCTR

Under

Invested

$2,993.87

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

72%

2343-899 (3242)

zxc368

Over

Invested

$2,738.81

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$1.37

Record

98%

12846-196 (13042)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,454

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$547.71

Record

54%

56053-48184 (104237)

Both legs:

Over$1,927.5452.1¢-$577.1

Under$526.4660.1¢+$29.39

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$80.85

Value

$180.08

PnL

+$99.23

Record

49%

12429-12737 (25166)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Under

Invested

$61.48

Value

$137.42

PnL

+$75.95

Record

58%

28259-20841 (49100)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Under

Invested

$61.28

Value

$100.09

PnL

+$38.81

Record

49%

18854-19262 (38116)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.71

Value

$18.83

PnL

+$16.13

Record

59%

9718-6703 (16421)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.38

Value

$18.32

PnL

+$9.94

Record

57%

13381-10228 (23609)

SnakeBall<$100

Over

Invested

$12.67

Value

$8.5

PnL

-$4.17

Record

50%

33084-32648 (65732)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.11

Value

$2.11

PnL

-$3

Record

52%

3741-3403 (7144)

shiifooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.75

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$8.68

Record

60%

3300-2213 (5513)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.