M25 Las Vegas, NV: Andres Santamarta Roig vs Noah Johnston
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Andres Santamarta Roig (50%) · Andres Santamarta Roig at 100¢ · $457 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Andres Santamarta Roig
6
Andres Santamarta Roig 50%
$456.96
$22.75
86¢ → 100¢
+16% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralAndres Santamarta Roig at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 poshposh | Andres Santamarta Roigavg 96.7¢ | $290.1 | $195 | -$95.1 | 59% 9718-6703 (16421) |
 RN1CTR | Noah Johnstonavg 3.2¢ | $20.48 | $151.48 | +$131 | 54% 56053-48184 (104237) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Andres Santamarta Roigavg 65.3¢ | $95.17 | $94.78 | -$0.39 | 49% 18854-19262 (38116) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noah Johnstonavg 37¢ | $190.36 | $7.7 | -$13.73 | 58% 41266-29916 (71182) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100 | Andres Santamarta Roigavg 66¢ | $6.14 | $6.05 | -$0.09 | 55% 1708-1411 (3119) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Noah Johnstonavg 16¢ | $0.89 | $1.95 | +$1.06 | 49% 671-693 (1364) |
poshposhInvested
$290.1
Value
$195
PnL
-$95.1
Record
59%
9718-6703 (16421)
RN1CTRInvested
$20.48
Value
$151.48
PnL
+$131
Record
54%
56053-48184 (104237)
Invested
$95.17
Value
$94.78
PnL
-$0.39
Record
49%
18854-19262 (38116)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$190.36
Value
$7.7
PnL
-$13.73
Record
58%
41266-29916 (71182)
Invested
$6.14
Value
$6.05
PnL
-$0.09
Record
55%
1708-1411 (3119)
Invested
$0.89
Value
$1.95
PnL
+$1.06
Record
49%
671-693 (1364)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.