Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Maria Lourdes Carle, while the market favors Julia Grabher (76%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Curitiba: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Julia Grabher
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Maria Lourdes Carle (63%) · Maria Lourdes Carle at 25¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 5
⚠️
Avoid
Maria Lourdes Carle
8
Maria Lourdes Carle 63%
$2.1K
-$278.9
37¢ → 24.5¢
-34% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidMaria Lourdes Carle at 25%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Julia Grabher 76%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Julia Grabheravg 66.6¢ | $792.88 | $808.09 | +$15.21 | 52% 13670-12491 (26161) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Maria Lourdes Carleavg 37¢ | $780 | $633.03 | -$146.97 | 54% 17010-14258 (31268) |
TH thestingsnakeCTR | Maria Lourdes Carleavg 43.4¢ | $651.42 | $440.28 | -$200.66 | 60% 4006-2695 (6701) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Maria Lourdes Carleavg 19¢ | $91.44 | $144.38 | +$52.94 | 49% 671-693 (1364) |
BI BillBenter2026<$100 | Julia Grabheravg 71¢ | $29.42 | $32.9 | +$3.48 | 58% 18510-13598 (32108) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100 | Maria Lourdes Carleavg 29¢ | $23.49 | $20.66 | -$2.83 | 50% 3763-3735 (7498) |
 RN1<$100 | Julia Grabheravg 72¢ | $5.66 | $5.5 | -$0.16 | 54% 56053-48184 (104237) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100 | Maria Lourdes Carleavg 27¢ | $0.81 | $0.9 | +$0.09 | 68% 457-217 (674) |
Invested
$792.88
Value
$808.09
PnL
+$15.21
Record
52%
13670-12491 (26161)
Invested
$780
Value
$633.03
PnL
-$146.97
Record
54%
17010-14258 (31268)
Invested
$651.42
Value
$440.28
PnL
-$200.66
Record
60%
4006-2695 (6701)
Invested
$91.44
Value
$144.38
PnL
+$52.94
Record
49%
671-693 (1364)
Invested
$29.42
Value
$32.9
PnL
+$3.48
Record
58%
18510-13598 (32108)
Invested
$23.49
Value
$20.66
PnL
-$2.83
Record
50%
3763-3735 (7498)
RN1<$100Invested
$5.66
Value
$5.5
PnL
-$0.16
Record
54%
56053-48184 (104237)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100Invested
$0.81
Value
$0.9
PnL
+$0.09
Record
68%
457-217 (674)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
Julia Grabher — $808.09
HomeRunHazard
CTRMaria Lourdes Carle — $633.03
thestingsnake
CTRMaria Lourdes Carle — $440.28
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
CTRMaria Lourdes Carle — $144.38
BillBenter2026
Julia Grabher — $32.9
NatoAlfista
CTRMaria Lourdes Carle — $20.66
RN1
Julia Grabher — $5.5
ARTEM-DZYUBA
CTRMaria Lourdes Carle — $0.9