Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Jenna DeFalco, while the market favors Ashley Lahey (90%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
W35 Norman, OK: Jenna DeFalco vs Ashley Lahey
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Jenna DeFalco (60%) · Jenna DeFalco at 11¢ · $426 held · ends Nov 5
⚠️
Avoid
Jenna DeFalco
5
Jenna DeFalco 60%
$425.84
$73.71
47.5¢ → 10.5¢
-78% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidJenna DeFalco at 11%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Ashley Lahey 90%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Jenna DeFalcoavg 47.3¢ | $209.77 | $323.93 | +$114.17 | 54% 56053-48184 (104237) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Ashley Laheyavg 53¢ | $109.64 | $53.79 | -$55.85 | 49% 18854-19262 (38116) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100 | Jenna DeFalcoavg 67¢ | $16.75 | $18.5 | -$0.37 | 68% 457-217 (674) |
SF sfkjbsr457CTR<$100 | Jenna DeFalcoavg 28¢ | $5.64 | $14.9 | +$9.26 | 55% 7794-6444 (14238) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Ashley Laheyavg 26.9¢ | $8.21 | $14.72 | +$6.51 | 49% 671-693 (1364) |
RN1CTRInvested
$209.77
Value
$323.93
PnL
+$114.17
Record
54%
56053-48184 (104237)
Invested
$109.64
Value
$53.79
PnL
-$55.85
Record
49%
18854-19262 (38116)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100Invested
$16.75
Value
$18.5
PnL
-$0.37
Record
68%
457-217 (674)
Invested
$5.64
Value
$14.9
PnL
+$9.26
Record
55%
7794-6444 (14238)
Invested
$8.21
Value
$14.72
PnL
+$6.51
Record
49%
671-693 (1364)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
10.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.