Erste Bank Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Matteo Berrettini
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Matteo Berrettini (40%) · Matteo Berrettini at 51¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Matteo Berrettini
5
Matteo Berrettini 40%
$3.0K
-$0.78
50.4¢ → 50.5¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralMatteo Berrettini at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
24h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Matteo Berrettini. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL pltrkr111 | Matteo Berrettiniavg 50¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$0 | 54% 723-608 (1331) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Flavio Cobolliavg 49¢ | $568.16 | $579.75 | +$11.6 | 58% 41239-29904 (71143) |
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3 | Matteo Berrettiniavg 52.3¢ | $431.75 | $416.77 | -$14.98 | 44% 390-489 (879) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Flavio Cobolliavg 47.4¢ | $58.28 | $60.16 | +$2.5 | 58% 28255-20837 (49092) |
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR<$100 | Flavio Cobolliavg 49¢ | $10.25 | $10.25 | +$0.1 | 51% 3913-3830 (7743) |
Invested
$1,937.64
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
723-608 (1331)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$568.16
Value
$579.75
PnL
+$11.6
Record
58%
41239-29904 (71143)
Invested
$431.75
Value
$416.77
PnL
-$14.98
Record
44%
390-489 (879)
Invested
$58.28
Value
$60.16
PnL
+$2.5
Record
58%
28255-20837 (49092)
Invested
$10.25
Value
$10.25
PnL
+$0.1
Record
51%
3913-3830 (7743)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.