Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (50%). 0 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Al Riyadh Saudi Club vs. Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club: O/U 4.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 50¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 100%
$1.3K
$20.66
72.2¢ → 50¢
-31% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 72¢ | $719.99 | $729.99 | +$10 | 58% 41239-29904 (71143) |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 72¢ | $400 | $298 | +$10 | 55% 6994-5612 (12606) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 73.1¢ | $232.64 | $232.46 | -$0.18 | 50% 24694-24376 (49070) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 72¢ | $63.36 | $64.24 | +$0.88 | 58% 28255-20837 (49092) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 73¢ | $22.54 | $22.46 | -$0.04 | 52% 3711-3383 (7094) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$719.99
Value
$729.99
PnL
+$10
Record
58%
41239-29904 (71143)
0xheavy888Invested
$400
Value
$298
PnL
+$10
Record
55%
6994-5612 (12606)
Invested
$232.64
Value
$232.46
PnL
-$0.18
Record
50%
24694-24376 (49070)
Invested
$63.36
Value
$64.24
PnL
+$0.88
Record
58%
28255-20837 (49092)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$22.54
Value
$22.46
PnL
-$0.04
Record
52%
3711-3383 (7094)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.