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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankjoseph00677little-jerkRN1
Record (consensus markets)41% (589–853, n=1442)43% (10–13, n=23)no settled market48% (17933–19364, n=37297)
Consensus PnL$7.7M$3.3M—$14.8M
Tracked asPM monthly #2PM monthly #8PM monthly #715PM monthly #34 + pinned
Sides with the consensus80% (39 of 49 open)no open consensus positionno open consensus position56% (54 of 96 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=142, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=107, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=282, ROI +37%
not computed yet
Weakest topic————
Settled positions, side won97% of 593 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31%—94% of 26124 at avg 59¢, ROI +35%
Entries under 30¢10% (won 82% of 60)12% (won 0% of 2)—10% (won 57% of 2594)
Entries 30–50¢36% (won 98% of 212)6% (won 0% of 1)—22% (won 94% of 5704)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 100% of 205)65% (won 73% of 11)—35% (won 99% of 9204)
Entries 70¢ and up20% (won 100% of 116)18% (won 67% of 3)—33% (won 100% of 8622)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

3 on the same side, 6 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankjoseph00677little-jerkRN1
Giants vs. Eagles
opposite sides · consensus Giants
Giants $179K——Eagles $1.1K
Spread: Cowboys (-4.5)
opposite sides · consensus Colts
Colts $166K——Cowboys $1.1K
Cowboys vs. Colts
opposite sides · consensus Cowboys
Colts $114K——Cowboys $1.6K
Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)
opposite sides · consensus Colts
Colts $93K——Cowboys $1.1K
Spread: Giants (-3.5)
opposite sides · consensus Eagles
Giants $65K——Eagles $5.7K
Spread: Cowboys (-5.5)
opposite sides · consensus Colts
Colts $22K——Cowboys $129
Spread: Giants (-2.5)
same side · consensus Eagles
Giants $107K——Giants $3.1K
Spread: Chiefs (-9.5)
same side · consensus Chiefs
Chiefs $21K——Chiefs $1.0K
Spread: Rams (-4.5)
same side · consensus Commanders
Rams $19K——Rams $2.5K