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PolyConsensus
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Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankchinamaxFlaznorpRN1
Record (consensus markets)45% (573–710, n=1283)41% (62–88, n=150)52% (6524–6030, n=12554)48% (14139–15621, n=29760)
Consensus PnL$7.9M-$134K$3.5M$14.8M
Tracked asPM monthly #3was PM monthly #983PM monthly #23PM monthly #29 + pinned
Sides with the consensus82% (23 of 28 open)no open consensus position77% (308 of 401 open)65% (129 of 198 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=140, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
  • Crypto +16 pts n=36, ROI −3%
  • Soccer +10 pts n=10, ROI −2%
  • Tennis +13 pts n=53, ROI +24%
  • NHL +8 pts n=61, ROI +12%
  • Esports +9 pts n=13, ROI +14%
Weakest topic—MLB ±0 pts, n=45Other Sports −13 pts, n=22—
Settled positions, side won97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%62% of 99 at avg 52¢, ROI −2%56% of 1617 at avg 55¢, ROI +27%94% of 25975 at avg 59¢, ROI +35%
Entries under 30¢11% (won 80% of 61)7% (won 0% of 7)29% (won 11% of 465)10% (won 57% of 2593)
Entries 30–50¢35% (won 98% of 203)30% (won 43% of 30)16% (won 40% of 255)22% (won 94% of 5682)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 100% of 201)52% (won 78% of 51)16% (won 62% of 260)35% (won 99% of 9181)
Entries 70¢ and up20% (won 100% of 115)11% (won 73% of 11)39% (won 94% of 637)33% (won 100% of 8519)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

96 on the same side, 47 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankchinamaxFlaznorpRN1
AC Milan vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Under $15KOver $7.9K
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Under $13KOver $1.5K
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
——Under $7.9KOver $6.4K
Lillestrøm SK vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň: Both Teams to Score
opposite sides · consensus Yes
——No $12KYes $1.7K
RSC Anderlecht vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 3.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Under $8.7KOver $722
Will Qairat FK win on 2026-11-05?
opposite sides · consensus No
——Yes $4.1KNo $4.9K
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw?
opposite sides · consensus No
——No $8.0KYes $560
AC Milan vs. Ferencvárosi TC: 1st Half O/U 0.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
——Under $2.7KOver $4.0K
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid leading at halftime?
opposite sides · consensus No
——No $4.4KYes $1.9K
Cali: Luisina Giovannini vs Bianca Andreescu
opposite sides · consensus Bianca Andreescu
——Bianca Andreescu $2.9KLuisina Giovannini $1.5K
Charlottesville: Daniel Milavsky vs Max Hans Rehberg
opposite sides · consensus Max Hans Rehberg
——Daniel Milavsky $595Max Hans Rehberg $3.6K
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
——Under $586Over $3.3K
PFK Levski Sofia vs. Jagiellonia Białystok: O/U 0.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Over $3.3KUnder $215
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to Score
opposite sides · consensus No
——No $3.1KYes $7
AC Milan vs. Ferencvárosi TC: 1st Half O/U 1.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Under $2.7KOver $82
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: 1st Half O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Under $2.6KOver $36
Lillestrøm SK vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň: O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Under $560Over $2.0K
FK Crvena zvezda vs. Inter Club d'Escaldes: O/U 5.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Under $2.5KOver $12
RSC Anderlecht vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
——Over $2.4KUnder $37
Exact Score: AC Sparta Praha 1 - 2 AFC Bournemouth?
opposite sides · consensus No
——No $826Yes $1.6K
Exact Score: AC Milan 1 - 2 Ferencvárosi TC?
opposite sides · consensus No
——Yes $671No $1.1K
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 5.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Over $476Under $1.3K
Exact Score: AC Milan 0 - 3 Ferencvárosi TC?
opposite sides · consensus No
——Yes $33No $1.4K
Exact Score: AC Sparta Praha 2 - 2 AFC Bournemouth?
opposite sides · consensus No
——No $826Yes $197
Will FC Thun vs. Heart of Midlothian FC end in a draw?
opposite sides · consensus No
——No $994Yes $13
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: Draw at halftime?
opposite sides · consensus No
——Yes $466No $529
AC Milan leading at halftime?
opposite sides · consensus No
——No $929Yes $8
AC Milan vs. Ferencvárosi TC: 1st Half O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Under $900Over $4
RSC Anderlecht vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: 1st Half O/U 1.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Under $880Over $5
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 4.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Under $875Over $2
PFK Levski Sofia vs. Jagiellonia Białystok: Both Teams to Score
opposite sides · consensus No
——No $664Yes $137
NEC vs. AS Omónoia Leukosías: O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
——Over $165Under $596
W75 Petange: Lisa Pigato vs Greet Minnen
opposite sides · consensus Greet Minnen
——Greet Minnen $686Lisa Pigato $43
Exact Score: PFK Levski Sofia 0 - 0 Jagiellonia Białystok?
opposite sides · consensus No
——No $619Yes $10
AC Sparta Praha vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 4.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Under $443Over $179
Will PFK Levski Sofia vs. Jagiellonia Białystok end in a draw?
opposite sides · consensus No
——Yes $324No $262
W35 Orlando, FL: Sloane Stephens vs Luciana Perry
opposite sides · consensus Sloane Stephens
——Sloane Stephens $449Luciana Perry $54
AFC Bournemouth leading at halftime?
opposite sides · consensus No
——No $311Yes $14
Spread: RSC Anderlecht (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus FC Red Bull Salzburg
——FC Red Bull Salzburg $313RSC Anderlecht $10
M25 Valencia: Julio Cesar Porras vs Ivan Gakhov
opposite sides · consensus Ivan Gakhov
——Julio Cesar Porras $60Ivan Gakhov $238
Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-2.5)
opposite sides · consensus Inter Club d'Escaldes
——Inter Club d'Escaldes $282FK Crvena zvezda $2
Exact Score: AC Sparta Praha 1 - 3 AFC Bournemouth?
opposite sides · consensus No
——No $245Yes $6
Spread: Warriors (-6.5)
opposite sides · consensus Heat
——Heat $108Warriors $130
Exact Score: AC Milan 0 - 2 Ferencvárosi TC?
opposite sides · consensus No
——Yes $201No $31
Mjällby AIF vs. FK Borac Banja Luka: O/U 3.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Under $141Over $1
PFK Levski Sofia vs. Jagiellonia Białystok: 1st Half O/U 0.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Under $133Over $2
Umraniyespor vs. Boluspor: 1st Half O/U 0.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Under $7Over $29
Will AC Milan win on 2026-11-05?
same side · consensus No
——No $107KNo $66K
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-11-05?
same side · consensus No
——No $43KNo $47K
Will KKS Lech Poznań win on 2026-11-05?
same side · consensus No
——No $44KNo $19K