Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (65%). 12 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-11-05?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 36¢ · $722 held · ends Nov 5

Yes65¢No35¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$722.12

Combined PnL

-$16.9

Smart Money Entry

35.8¢ → 35.5¢

-1% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 65%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes65%

No36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$722.12

Total Shares2,031

Combined PnL-$16.9

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 37.5¢	$356.91	$150.27	-$20.02	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 35¢	$147.65	$149.76	+$2.11	39% 1339-2113 (3452)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 35¢	$132.16	$134.04	+$1.89	40% 1343-2037 (3380)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 36¢	$101.3	$98.51	-$2.8	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Noavg 36.1¢	$66.02	$63.94	+$0.91	50% 20743-20989 (41732)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$43.41	$44.03	+$0.62	48% 7285-7769 (15054)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Noavg 34.7¢	$34.21	$35.04	+$0.83	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Noavg 36.1¢	$25.37	$24.57	-$0.35	49% 6204-6345 (12549)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$12.33	$12.33	+$0	50% 36339-35820 (72159)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$4.57	$4.57	+$0	53% 16518-14663 (31181)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 36.1¢	$3.4	$3.29	-$0.11	51% 7653-7369 (15022)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$1.75	$1.78	+$0.02	50% 25488-25195 (50683)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$356.91

Value

$150.27

PnL

-$20.02

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$147.65

Value

$149.76

PnL

+$2.11

Record

39%

1339-2113 (3452)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$132.16

Value

$134.04

PnL

+$1.89

Record

40%

1343-2037 (3380)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$101.3

Value

$98.51

PnL

-$2.8

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Invested

$66.02

Value

$63.94

PnL

+$0.91

Record

50%

20743-20989 (41732)

OddstormCTR<$100

Invested

$43.41

Value

$44.03

PnL

+$0.62

Record

48%

7285-7769 (15054)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$34.21

Value

$35.04

PnL

+$0.83

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

purplegattoCTR<$100

Invested

$25.37

Value

$24.57

PnL

-$0.35

Record

49%

6204-6345 (12549)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$12.33

Value

$12.33

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

36339-35820 (72159)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$4.57

Value

$4.57

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

16518-14663 (31181)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.29

PnL

-$0.11

Record

51%

7653-7369 (15022)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$1.75

Value

$1.78

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

25488-25195 (50683)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 36%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 65%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.