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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BreakTheBank | HerbertAppreciator | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 45% (571–700, n=1271) | 76% (28–9, n=37) | 47% (13369–14864, n=28233) |
| Consensus PnL | $9.4M | $190K | $14.8M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #365 | PM monthly #29 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 52% (13 of 25 open) | 50% (2 of 4 open) | 55% (99 of 179 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| |
| Weakest topic | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40% | 84% of 37 at avg 37¢, ROI +15% | 94% of 25370 at avg 59¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 11% (won 80% of 61) | 41% (won 67% of 15) | 10% (won 57% of 2538) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 35% (won 98% of 203) | 32% (won 92% of 12) | 22% (won 94% of 5565) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 35% (won 100% of 201) | 16% (won 100% of 6) | 36% (won 99% of 9017) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 20% (won 100% of 115) | 11% (won 100% of 4) | 33% (won 100% of 8250) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | BreakTheBank | HerbertAppreciator | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus No | No $182K | Yes $5.5K | — |
| Spread: Pelicans (-4.5) opposite sides · consensus Jazz | Jazz $30K | — | Pelicans $125 |
| Spread: Pelicans (-5.5) opposite sides · consensus Jazz | Jazz $19K | — | Pelicans $135 |
| Spread: Pelicans (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Jazz | Jazz $323 | — | Pelicans $143 |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $75K | Yes $138K | — |
| Spread: Grizzlies (-6.5) same side · consensus Pacers | Grizzlies $357 | — | Grizzlies $123 |