Spread: Pelicans (-2.5)

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (29%) · Jazz at 51¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 5

Pelicans50¢Jazz50¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 29%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$6.64

Smart Money Entry

44.4¢ → 50.5¢

+14% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pelicans50%

Jazz51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz2 traders

Total Value$608.86

Total Shares1,214

Combined PnL+$10.13

Pelicans5 traders

Total Value$300.06

Total Shares530

Combined PnL-$3.49

Jazz — 29%Pelicans — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBank	Jazzavg 41¢	$301.36	$323.41	+$22.05	44% 624-798 (1422)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Pelicansavg 53¢	$323.5	$319.69	-$3.81	56% 7920-6245 (14165)
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 53¢	$245.99	$229.74	-$16.24
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 43.5¢	$77.52	$89.95	+$12.43
FL Flaznorp	Jazzavg 49.5¢	$297.38	$285.46	-$11.92	51% 24452-23135 (47587)
RN1CTR	Pelicansavg 58¢	$145	$142.5	-$2.5	53% 60181-52537 (112718)
TA takeormakeCTR	Pelicansavg 53¢	$110.39	$111.12	+$0.72	53% 4711-4219 (8930)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 58.2¢	$23.29	$22.8	-$0.49	61% 2426-1548 (3974)
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 60.2¢	$21.97	$20.8	-$1.17	60% 4424-2918 (7342)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Pelicansavg 58¢	$2.9	$2.85	-$0.05	52% 8633-7856 (16489)

BreakTheBank

Jazz

Invested

$301.36

Value

$323.41

PnL

+$22.05

Record

44%

624-798 (1422)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$323.5

Value

$319.69

PnL

-$3.81

Record

56%

7920-6245 (14165)

Both legs:

Pelicans$245.9953¢-$16.24

Jazz$77.5243.5¢+$12.43

Flaznorp

Jazz

Invested

$297.38

Value

$285.46

PnL

-$11.92

Record

51%

24452-23135 (47587)

RN1CTR

Pelicans

Invested

$145

Value

$142.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

53%

60181-52537 (112718)

takeormakeCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$110.39

Value

$111.12

PnL

+$0.72

Record

53%

4711-4219 (8930)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$23.29

Value

$22.8

PnL

-$0.49

Record

61%

2426-1548 (3974)

SunlineTickerCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$21.97

Value

$20.8

PnL

-$1.17

Record

60%

4424-2918 (7342)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.85

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

8633-7856 (16489)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.