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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BABELCONSTEL | BreakTheBank | primm | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 82% (314–69, n=383) | 46% (560–667, n=1227) | 50% (1078–1087, n=2165) | 47% (13371–14881, n=28252) |
| Consensus PnL | -$551K | $9.4M | $3.6M | $14.8M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #304 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #48 | PM monthly #30 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 83% (5 of 6 open) | 62% (18 of 29 open) | 68% (17 of 25 open) | 60% (130 of 216 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −8 pts, n=15 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 90% of 726 at avg 80¢, ROI +9% | 97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40% | 99% of 987 at avg 50¢, ROI +51% | 94% of 25370 at avg 59¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 4% (won 3% of 29) | 11% (won 80% of 61) | 5% (won 94% of 51) | 10% (won 57% of 2538) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 6% (won 69% of 42) | 35% (won 98% of 203) | 41% (won 99% of 405) | 22% (won 94% of 5565) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 14% (won 79% of 103) | 35% (won 100% of 201) | 49% (won 99% of 485) | 36% (won 99% of 9017) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 76% (won 98% of 552) | 20% (won 100% of 115) | 5% (won 100% of 46) | 33% (won 100% of 8250) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
8 on the same side, 15 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | BABELCONSTEL | BreakTheBank | primm | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $6.8K | No $258K | — | — |
| Spread: Pelicans (-4.5) opposite sides · consensus Jazz | — | Jazz $31K | — | Pelicans $126 |
| Spread: Pelicans (-5.5) opposite sides · consensus Jazz | — | Jazz $19K | — | Pelicans $121 |
| Spread: Central Michigan (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Eastern Michigan | — | — | Eastern Michigan $7.5K | Central Michigan $587 |
| Central Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan opposite sides · consensus Central Michigan | — | — | Eastern Michigan $2.0K | Central Michigan $5.6K |
| Spread: Central Michigan (-1.5) opposite sides · consensus Central Michigan | — | — | Eastern Michigan $3.4K | Central Michigan $18 |
| Spread: UMass (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Ball State | — | — | Ball State $2.9K | UMass $358 |
| Toledo vs. Sacramento State: O/U 53.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | — | — | Over $3.1K | Under $3 |
| Spread: Toledo (-27.5) opposite sides · consensus Toledo | — | — | Toledo $2.4K | Sacramento State $631 |
| Spread: Toledo (-26.5) opposite sides · consensus Toledo | — | — | Toledo $996 | Sacramento State $524 |
| Spread: Toledo (-17.5) opposite sides · consensus Sacramento State | — | — | Toledo $589 | Sacramento State $842 |
| Ball State vs. UMass: O/U 37.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | — | — | Over $1.0K | Under $228 |
| Spread: Toledo (-30.5) opposite sides · consensus Sacramento State | — | — | Toledo $277 | Sacramento State $466 |
| Spread: Toledo (-16.5) opposite sides · consensus Sacramento State | — | — | Toledo $198 | Sacramento State $62 |
| Spread: Eastern Michigan (-1.5) opposite sides · consensus Eastern Michigan | — | — | Eastern Michigan $188 | Central Michigan $33 |
| Villa Maria: Lucio Ratti vs Carlos Maria Zarate same side · consensus Carlos Maria Zarate | Carlos Maria Zarate $5.2K | — | — | Carlos Maria Zarate $3.7K |
| Spread: Ball State (-5.5) same side · consensus Ball State | — | — | Ball State $4.1K | Ball State $850 |
| Toledo vs. Sacramento State: O/U 51.5 same side · consensus Over | — | — | Over $3.4K | Over $182 |
| Spread: Toledo (-33.5) same side · consensus Sacramento State | — | — | Toledo $2.0K | Toledo $490 |
| Spread: Toledo (-20.5) same side · consensus Toledo | — | — | Toledo $948 | Toledo $785 |
| Spread: Toledo (-23.5) same side · consensus Toledo | — | — | Toledo $266 | Toledo $434 |
| Spread: Grizzlies (-6.5) same side · consensus Pacers | — | Grizzlies $346 | — | Grizzlies $118 |
| Spread: Hawks (-3.5) same side · consensus Hawks | — | Hawks $66 | — | Hawks $128 |