Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Toledo, while the market favors Sacramento State (96%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Toledo (-20.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Toledo (50%) · Toledo at 4.0¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 5

Toledo4¢Sacramento State96¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Toledo

Consensus Traders

Toledo 50%

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

-$71.67

Smart Money Entry

48.2¢ → 4¢

-92% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidToledo at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Toledo

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Sacramento State 96%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Toledo4%

Sacramento State96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sacramento State4 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares4,354

Combined PnL+$888.4

Toledo4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares4,789

Combined PnL-$960.06

Sacramento State — 50%Toledo — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justaluckydude	Sacramento Stateavg 67.1¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$201.19	53% 11880-10404 (22284)
RollAwayTheDew	Sacramento Stateavg 45.7¢	$667.38	$1.0K	+$353.92	54% 512-441 (953)
SU SunflowaRebuildYear	Sacramento Stateavg 45.7¢	$598.31	$915.6	+$317.29	46% 418-496 (914)
RN1CTR	Toledoavg 44.4¢	$1.1K	$773.46	-$302.88	53% 60181-52537 (112718)
PR primmCTR	Toledoavg 55¢	$802.45	$437.7	-$364.75	47% 1244-1422 (2666)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Toledoavg 55.4¢	$290.75	$157.5	-$133.25	56% 7920-6245 (14165)
3C 0x3ca9...424a<$100	Sacramento Stateavg 80¢	$80	$96	+$16	—
38 38791873984189CTR	Toledoavg 37.7¢	$178.94	$19.77	-$159.18	48% 59434-63450 (122884)

justaluckydude

Sacramento State

Invested

$1,085.76

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$201.19

Record

53%

11880-10404 (22284)

RollAwayTheDew

Sacramento State

Invested

$667.38

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$353.92

Record

54%

512-441 (953)

SunflowaRebuildYear

Sacramento State

Invested

$598.31

Value

$915.6

PnL

+$317.29

Record

46%

418-496 (914)

RN1CTR

Toledo

Invested

$1,076.35

Value

$773.46

PnL

-$302.88

Record

53%

60181-52537 (112718)

primmCTR

Toledo

Invested

$802.45

Value

$437.7

PnL

-$364.75

Record

47%

1244-1422 (2666)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Toledo

Invested

$290.75

Value

$157.5

PnL

-$133.25

Record

56%

7920-6245 (14165)

0x3ca9...424a<$100

Sacramento State

Invested

$80

Value

$96

PnL

+$16

Record

—

38791873984189CTR

Toledo

Invested

$178.94

Value

$19.77

PnL

-$159.18

Record

48%

59434-63450 (122884)

Research grade

AvoidToledo at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Toledo

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Sacramento State 96%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Toledo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.2%

4.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1809.31

Max Loss

-$100.00

1909.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.