Spread: Toledo (-17.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Sacramento State (71%) · Sacramento State at 92¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 5

Toledo8¢Sacramento State92¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sacramento State

Consensus Traders

Sacramento State 71%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$115.65

Smart Money Entry

70.8¢ → 92¢

+30% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralSacramento State at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sacramento State

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Toledo8%

Sacramento State92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sacramento State5 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,054

Combined PnL-$92.81

Toledo2 traders

Total Value$303.19

Total Shares888

Combined PnL-$22.84

Sacramento State — 71%Toledo — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Sacramento Stateavg 70¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$108.2	53% 60181-52537 (112718)
PR primmCTR	Toledoavg 36.7¢	$304.17	$298.44	-$5.73	47% 1244-1422 (2666)
65 6512395314597884	Sacramento Stateavg 76¢	$270.18	$271.96	+$1.78	51% 4652-4485 (9137)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Sacramento Stateavg 66.4¢	$85.85	$94.83	+$8.98	53% 11880-10404 (22284)
3C 0x3ca9...424a<$100	Sacramento Stateavg 69.1¢	$18.26	$21.68	+$3.42	—
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Sacramento Stateavg 64¢	$4.3	$5.51	+$1.21	56% 7920-6245 (14165)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Toledoavg 36.8¢	$21.85	$4.75	-$17.11	47% 11225-12583 (23808)

RN1

Sacramento State

Invested

$1,541.2

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$108.2

Record

53%

60181-52537 (112718)

primmCTR

Toledo

Invested

$304.17

Value

$298.44

PnL

-$5.73

Record

47%

1244-1422 (2666)

6512395314597884

Sacramento State

Invested

$270.18

Value

$271.96

PnL

+$1.78

Record

51%

4652-4485 (9137)

justaluckydude<$100

Sacramento State

Invested

$85.85

Value

$94.83

PnL

+$8.98

Record

53%

11880-10404 (22284)

0x3ca9...424a<$100

Sacramento State

Invested

$18.26

Value

$21.68

PnL

+$3.42

Record

—

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Sacramento State

Invested

$4.3

Value

$5.51

PnL

+$1.21

Record

56%

7920-6245 (14165)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Toledo

Invested

$21.85

Value

$4.75

PnL

-$17.11

Record

47%

11225-12583 (23808)

Research grade

NeutralSacramento State at 92%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Sacramento State

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sacramento State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.