Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Ball State, while the market favors UMass (74%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Ball State (-5.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Ball State (67%) · Ball State at 26¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 5
⚠️
Avoid
Ball State
6
Ball State 67%
2 arb excluded
$8.0K
-$790.61
53.9¢ → 26¢
-52% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidBall State at 26%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors UMass 74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PR primmCTR | Ball Stateavg 55.1¢ | $4.8K | $4.1K | -$729.63 | 47% 1244-1422 (2666) |
CM cm2897 | UMassavg 44.6¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$63 | 51% 2134-2070 (4204) |
 RN1CTR | Ball Stateavg 51¢ | $970.97 | $850.33 | -$120.64 | 53% 60065-52434 (112499) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Ball Stateavg 46¢ | $1.0K | $582.28 | -$68.98 | 48% 59324-63332 (122656) |
| └ UMass leg | UMassavg 51.7¢ | $231.53 | $299.79 | +$38.18 | |
| └ Ball State leg | Ball Stateavg 46¢ | $393.93 | $282.49 | -$107.16 | |
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100 | Ball Stateavg 41¢ | $296.21 | $328.72 | +$32.51 | 53% 11880-10404 (22284) |
| └ Ball State leg | Ball Stateavg 41¢ | $165.72 | $169.79 | +$4.08 | |
| └ UMass leg | UMassavg 47.6¢ | $130.49 | $158.93 | +$28.43 | |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Ball Stateavg 28.6¢ | $45.62 | $43.07 | -$2.56 | 51% 1095-1048 (2143) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | UMassavg 41.4¢ | $13.17 | $13.04 | -$0.13 | 47% 11082-12418 (23500) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Ball Stateavg 57¢ | $5.65 | $5 | -$0.65 | 50% 8199-8222 (16421) |
Invested
$4,814.53
Value
$4.1K
PnL
-$729.63
Record
47%
1244-1422 (2666)
Invested
$2,021.37
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$63
Record
51%
2134-2070 (4204)
RN1CTRInvested
$970.97
Value
$850.33
PnL
-$120.64
Record
53%
60065-52434 (112499)
Invested
$1,037.32
Value
$582.28
PnL
-$68.98
Record
48%
59324-63332 (122656)
Both legs:
Invested
$296.21
Value
$328.72
PnL
+$32.51
Record
53%
11880-10404 (22284)
Both legs:
Invested
$45.62
Value
$43.07
PnL
-$2.56
Record
51%
1095-1048 (2143)
Invested
$13.17
Value
$13.04
PnL
-$0.13
Record
47%
11082-12418 (23500)
Invested
$5.65
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.65
Record
50%
8199-8222 (16421)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
26.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.