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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465 | BreakTheBank | l..messi | ndb1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 54% (4827–4032, n=8859) | 41% (589–853, n=1442) | 57% (1110–846, n=1956) | 63% (1095–632, n=1727) |
| Consensus PnL | $8.2M | $7.7M | $84K | $4.6M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #14 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #787 | PM monthly #111 |
| Sides with the consensus | 55% (17 of 31 open) | 88% (35 of 40 open) | no open consensus position | 71% (70 of 98 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | NHL −1 pts, n=136 | — | — | NFL −8 pts, n=147 |
| Settled positions, side won | 59% of 7152 at avg 55¢, ROI +2% | 97% of 593 at avg 53¢, ROI +40% | 63% of 1537 at avg 58¢, ROI +3% | 64% of 1406 at avg 64¢, ROI +2% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 17% (won 11% of 1182) | 10% (won 82% of 60) | 28% (won 12% of 436) | 13% (won 14% of 187) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 25% (won 46% of 1753) | 36% (won 98% of 212) | 10% (won 38% of 160) | 19% (won 39% of 269) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 29% (won 66% of 2092) | 35% (won 100% of 205) | 15% (won 75% of 225) | 23% (won 57% of 328) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 30% (won 91% of 2125) | 20% (won 100% of 116) | 47% (won 97% of 716) | 44% (won 94% of 622) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
6 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465 | BreakTheBank | l..messi | ndb1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans vs. Chargers opposite sides · consensus Texans | Texans $233K | Chargers $294K | — | — |
| Spread: Texans (-5.5) opposite sides · consensus Chargers | Texans $23K | Chargers $100K | — | — |
| Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $1.5K | Yes $19K | — | — |
| Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? same side · consensus No | — | No $423K | — | No $346K |
| Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? same side · consensus Yes | — | Yes $304K | — | Yes $12K |
| Cardinals vs. Seahawks same side · consensus Seahawks | Seahawks $46K | Seahawks $124K | — | — |
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? same side · consensus Yes | No $18 | No $29K | — | — |
| Raiders vs. 49ers: O/U 52.5 same side · consensus Over | Over $6.7K | Over $14K | — | — |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? same side · consensus No | No $4.5K | No $2.4K | — | — |