Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Raiders vs. 49ers: O/U 52.5

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 48¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 8

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 100%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.4K

Combined PnL

$91.87

Smart Money Entry

46.9¢ → 47.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares16,111

Combined PnL+$91.87

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

93h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 47¢	$7.2K	$7.4K	+$190.63	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47¢	$5.9K	$5.9K	+$62.55
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$128.08
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Overavg 47¢	$6.6K	$6.7K	+$70.12	53% 6640-5923 (12563)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 46.5¢	$581.15	$594.15	+$13	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$317.2	$309.82	-$7.38	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$175	$166.25	-$8.75
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$142.2	$143.57	+$1.37
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 46¢	$136.45	$140.89	+$4.45	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Overavg 48.3¢	$126.26	$125.25	-$1.01	50% 4153-4222 (8375)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Overavg 46¢	$119.44	$123.61	+$4.17	53% 14327-12638 (26965)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$24.47	$25.27	+$0.8	46% 942-1118 (2060)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$8.98	$9.33	+$0.35	52% 27203-24713 (51916)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$7,246.15

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$190.63

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

Both legs:

Over$5,88047¢+$62.55

Under$1,366.1548¢+$128.08

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Over

Invested

$6,590.12

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$70.12

Record

53%

6640-5923 (12563)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$581.15

Value

$594.15

PnL

+$13

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$317.2

Value

$309.82

PnL

-$7.38

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

Both legs:

Invested

$136.45

Value

$140.89

PnL

+$4.45

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

HerdoniaCTR

Over

Invested

$126.26

Value

$125.25

PnL

-$1.01

Record

50%

4153-4222 (8375)

BoomLaLaCTR

Over

Invested

$119.44

Value

$123.61

PnL

+$4.17

Record

53%

14327-12638 (26965)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$24.47

Value

$25.27

PnL

+$0.8

Record

46%

942-1118 (2060)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.98

Value

$9.33

PnL

+$0.35

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

93h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.