Cardinals vs. Seahawks

13 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Seahawks (68%) · Seahawks at 79¢ · $30K held · ends Nov 8

Cardinals22¢Seahawks78¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Seahawks

Consensus Traders

Seahawks 68%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$30.4K

Combined PnL

$24.51

Smart Money Entry

82.6¢ → 78.5¢

-5% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

13 of 19 top traders (68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cardinals22%

Seahawks79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Seahawks13 traders

Total Value$21.1K

Total Shares26,589

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Cardinals6 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares29,299

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Seahawks — 68%Cardinals — 32%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Late

102h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

68% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSeahawks 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpSeahawks 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrSeahawks 64% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedSeahawks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Seahawks 67% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Seahawksavg 84¢	$9.9K	$9.2K	-$763.75	64% 2024-1128 (3152)
65 6512395314597884	Seahawksavg 79.7¢	$4.3K	$4.2K	-$118.08	51% 4834-4701 (9535)
IC ic4cream	Seahawksavg 83.4¢	$4.4K	$4.2K	-$268.08	56% 2780-2195 (4975)
EdZacharyCTR	Cardinalsavg 17.2¢	$2.7K	$3.4K	+$849.85	43% 117-153 (270)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Seahawksavg 77.4¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$33.18	54% 18314-15419 (33733)
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 77.4¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$12.17
└ Cardinals leg	Cardinalsavg 22¢	$924.66	$924.66	+$21.02
GA GaditimaCTR	Cardinalsavg 16.9¢	$2.1K	$2.7K	+$727.32	47% 7476-8278 (15754)
38 38791873984189	Seahawksavg 80.6¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$38.31	48% 62067-66946 (129013)
HE Herdonia	Seahawksavg 83.2¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$67.53	51% 3835-3755 (7590)
SN SnakeBall	Seahawksavg 83¢	$689.6	$656.3	-$29.84	50% 38117-37372 (75489)
NM NM-P	Seahawksavg 77¢	$473.3	$476.05	+$2.75	64% 10122-5677 (15799)
DV dv-pm	Seahawksavg 83¢	$180.11	$169.26	-$10.85	48% 3362-3587 (6949)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Cardinalsavg 22.6¢	$171.38	$166.7	+$0.73	51% 26809-25398 (52207)
OD OddstormCTR	Cardinalsavg 22¢	$147.49	$150.92	+$3.43	48% 7431-7968 (15399)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Cardinalsavg 17¢	$27.71	$35.86	+$8.97	50% 8380-8435 (16815)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Cardinalsavg 16.4¢	$9.85	$13.98	+$4.13	54% 531-449 (980)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Seahawksavg 78.5¢	$13.59	$13.5	-$0.09	50% 21484-21745 (43229)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Seahawksavg 83¢	$9.76	$9.18	-$0.65	53% 12545-11258 (23803)
GC GC-P<$100	Seahawksavg 77¢	$7.29	$7.38	+$0.05	64% 10147-5745 (15892)
HI hithitfar<$100	Seahawksavg 81.5¢	$7.61	$7.29	-$0.33	58% 828-589 (1417)
VeryLucky888	Seahawksavg 82.9¢	$4.3K	$1.27	-$275.21	58% 47297-34106 (81403)

darkumbreon88

Seahawks

Invested

$9,874.94

Value

$9.2K

PnL

-$763.75

Record

64%

2024-1128 (3152)

6512395314597884

Seahawks

Invested

$4,257.83

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$118.08

Record

51%

4834-4701 (9535)

ic4cream

Seahawks

Invested

$4,432.88

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$268.08

Record

56%

2780-2195 (4975)

EdZacharyCTR

Cardinals

Invested

$2,663.64

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$849.85

Record

43%

117-153 (270)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$2,808.38

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$33.18

Record

54%

18314-15419 (33733)

Both legs:

Seahawks$1,883.7277.4¢+$12.17

Cardinals$924.6622¢+$21.02

GaditimaCTR

Cardinals

Invested

$2,063.49

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$727.32

Record

47%

7476-8278 (15754)

38791873984189

Seahawks

Invested

$1,195.83

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$38.31

Record

48%

62067-66946 (129013)

Herdonia

Seahawks

Invested

$1,193.09

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$67.53

Record

51%

3835-3755 (7590)

SnakeBall

Seahawks

Invested

$689.6

Value

$656.3

PnL

-$29.84

Record

50%

38117-37372 (75489)

NM-P

Seahawks

Invested

$473.3

Value

$476.05

PnL

+$2.75

Record

64%

10122-5677 (15799)

dv-pm

Seahawks

Invested

$180.11

Value

$169.26

PnL

-$10.85

Record

48%

3362-3587 (6949)

FlaznorpCTR

Cardinals

Invested

$171.38

Value

$166.7

PnL

+$0.73

Record

51%

26809-25398 (52207)

OddstormCTR

Cardinals

Invested

$147.49

Value

$150.92

PnL

+$3.43

Record

48%

7431-7968 (15399)

RLWGCTR<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$27.71

Value

$35.86

PnL

+$8.97

Record

50%

8380-8435 (16815)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$9.85

Value

$13.98

PnL

+$4.13

Record

54%

531-449 (980)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$13.59

Value

$13.5

PnL

-$0.09

Record

50%

21484-21745 (43229)

BoomLaLa<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$9.76

Value

$9.18

PnL

-$0.65

Record

53%

12545-11258 (23803)

GC-P<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$7.29

Value

$7.38

PnL

+$0.05

Record

64%

10147-5745 (15892)

hithitfar<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$7.61

Value

$7.29

PnL

-$0.33

Record

58%

828-589 (1417)

VeryLucky888

Seahawks

Invested

$4,292.71

Value

$1.27

PnL

-$275.21

Record

58%

47297-34106 (81403)

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 79%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

13 of 19 top traders (68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Late

102h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

68% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSeahawks 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpSeahawks 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrSeahawks 64% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedSeahawks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Seahawks 67% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Seahawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.