Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Chargers, while the market favors Texans (70%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Texans vs. Chargers

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Chargers (80%) · Chargers at 31¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 8

Texans70¢Chargers30¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Chargers

Consensus Traders

Chargers 80%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$8.05

Smart Money Entry

31.4¢ → 30.5¢

-3% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralChargers at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chargers

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Texans 70%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Texans70%

Chargers31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Texans2 traders

Total Value$721.43

Total Shares1,046

Combined PnL+$2.94

Chargers8 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,788

Combined PnL+$5.11

Texans — 20%Chargers — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Chargers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleChargers 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpChargers 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrChargers 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedChargers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Chargers 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Texansavg 68.6¢	$560.64	$563.72	+$4.09	53% 661-579 (1240)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Chargersavg 31¢	$472.47	$471.85	+$7	69% 7246-3212 (10458)
OD OddstormCTR	Chargersavg 32¢	$245.57	$236.12	-$3.21	48% 7418-7956 (15374)
38 38791873984189CTR	Chargersavg 32.3¢	$103.51	$234.81	-$0.38	48% 61710-66575 (128285)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be	Texansavg 69.6¢	$159.18	$157.71	-$1.14	49% 378-401 (779)
NM NM-PCTR	Chargersavg 31¢	$155	$155	-$0	64% 10064-5621 (15685)
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	Chargersavg 31.1¢	$74.29	$74.23	+$1.09	51% 3823-3747 (7570)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Chargersavg 31¢	$34.23	$34.23	+$0.55	53% 12539-11248 (23787)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Chargersavg 31.1¢	$8.95	$8.96	+$0.14	58% 47020-33905 (80925)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Chargersavg 31¢	$4.69	$4.61	-$0.08	54% 10064-8455 (18519)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Texans

Invested

$560.64

Value

$563.72

PnL

+$4.09

Record

53%

661-579 (1240)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Chargers

Invested

$472.47

Value

$471.85

PnL

+$7

Record

69%

7246-3212 (10458)

OddstormCTR

Chargers

Invested

$245.57

Value

$236.12

PnL

-$3.21

Record

48%

7418-7956 (15374)

38791873984189CTR

Chargers

Invested

$103.51

Value

$234.81

PnL

-$0.38

Record

48%

61710-66575 (128285)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be

Texans

Invested

$159.18

Value

$157.71

PnL

-$1.14

Record

49%

378-401 (779)

NM-PCTR

Chargers

Invested

$155

Value

$155

PnL

-$0

Record

64%

10064-5621 (15685)

HerdoniaCTR<$100

Chargers

Invested

$74.29

Value

$74.23

PnL

+$1.09

Record

51%

3823-3747 (7570)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Chargers

Invested

$34.23

Value

$34.23

PnL

+$0.55

Record

53%

12539-11248 (23787)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Chargers

Invested

$8.95

Value

$8.96

PnL

+$0.14

Record

58%

47020-33905 (80925)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Chargers

Invested

$4.69

Value

$4.61

PnL

-$0.08

Record

54%

10064-8455 (18519)

Research grade

NeutralChargers at 31%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Chargers

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Texans 70%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Chargers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleChargers 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpChargers 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrChargers 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedChargers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Chargers 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chargers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.6%

30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$206.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

306.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.