Spread: Texans (-5.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Texans (33%) · Texans at 52¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 8

Texans52¢Chargers48¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Texans

Consensus Traders

Texans 33%

Total Value

$18.2K

Combined PnL

-$162.88

Smart Money Entry

50.7¢ → 51.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralTexans at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Texans

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Texans52%

Chargers49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Texans3 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares18,393

Combined PnL+$95.35

Chargers6 traders

Total Value$9.0K

Total Shares18,312

Combined PnL-$258.22

Texans — 33%Chargers — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Texans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleChargers 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpChargers 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrChargers 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedChargers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Chargers 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PW Pwaddler	Texansavg 50.7¢	$9.3K	$9.2K	+$95.26	49% 455-480 (935)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Chargersavg 50¢	$6.4K	$6.3K	-$193.35	54% 18236-15351 (33587)
VeryLucky888CTR	Chargersavg 50¢	$1.8K	$1.5K	-$41.37	58% 46962-33856 (80818)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Chargersavg 50.1¢	$818.15	$800.73	-$17.42	51% 3806-3729 (7535)
38 38791873984189CTR	Chargersavg 50.4¢	$348.33	$338.85	-$6.02	48% 61607-66479 (128086)
RL RLWG<$100	Texansavg 50¢	$20.7	$20.7	+$0.21	50% 8318-8377 (16695)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Texansavg 50¢	$11.86	$11.86	-$0.12	50% 21308-21583 (42891)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Chargersavg 50¢	$6	$5.88	-$0.06	48% 7411-7947 (15358)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Chargersavg 49¢	$4.41	$4.41	+$0	64% 10038-5607 (15645)

Pwaddler

Texans

Invested

$9,296.52

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$95.26

Record

49%

455-480 (935)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Chargers

Invested

$6,445

Value

$6.3K

PnL

-$193.35

Record

54%

18236-15351 (33587)

VeryLucky888CTR

Chargers

Invested

$1,770.64

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$41.37

Record

58%

46962-33856 (80818)

HerdoniaCTR

Chargers

Invested

$818.15

Value

$800.73

PnL

-$17.42

Record

51%

3806-3729 (7535)

38791873984189CTR

Chargers

Invested

$348.33

Value

$338.85

PnL

-$6.02

Record

48%

61607-66479 (128086)

RLWG<$100

Texans

Invested

$20.7

Value

$20.7

PnL

+$0.21

Record

50%

8318-8377 (16695)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Texans

Invested

$11.86

Value

$11.86

PnL

-$0.12

Record

50%

21308-21583 (42891)

OddstormCTR<$100

Chargers

Invested

Value

$5.88

PnL

-$0.06

Record

48%

7411-7947 (15358)

NM-PCTR<$100

Chargers

Invested

$4.41

Value

$4.41

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

10038-5607 (15645)

Research grade

NeutralTexans at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Texans

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Texans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleChargers 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpChargers 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrChargers 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedChargers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Chargers 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Texans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.