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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| xcaiox | jesterthegoose | RN1 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | no settled market | 80% (284–70, n=354) | 49% (9610–10110, n=19720) | 67% (469–231, n=700) |
| Consensus PnL | — | $207K | $13.3M | $10.2M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #698 | was PM monthly #562 + pinned | Hand-picked | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | no open consensus position | 0% (0 of 1 open) | 53% (17 of 32 open) | 76% (53 of 70 open) |
| Strongest topics | not computed yet |
| ||
| Weakest topic | — | Elections −5 pts, n=12 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | — | 80% of 579 at avg 79¢, ROI +3% | 93% of 20810 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 97% of 471 at avg 53¢, ROI +40% |
| Entries under 30¢ | — | 14% (won 8% of 83) | 10% (won 53% of 2181) | 11% (won 87% of 52) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | — | 5% (won 39% of 28) | 22% (won 94% of 4645) | 34% (won 98% of 162) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | — | 5% (won 65% of 31) | 37% (won 99% of 7657) | 33% (won 99% of 154) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | — | 75% (won 97% of 437) | 30% (won 100% of 6327) | 22% (won 100% of 103) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 6 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | xcaiox | jesterthegoose | RN1 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5) opposite sides · consensus Grizzlies | — | — | Kings $220 | Grizzlies $420K |
| Chiefs vs. Seahawks opposite sides · consensus Seahawks | — | — | Seahawks $28K | Chiefs $280K |
| Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Grizzlies | — | — | Kings $272 | Grizzlies $121K |
| Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5) opposite sides · consensus Grizzlies | — | — | Kings $190 | Grizzlies $47K |
| Spread: Chiefs (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Seahawks | — | — | Seahawks $5.5K | Chiefs $40K |
| Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Grizzlies | — | — | Kings $73 | Grizzlies $24K |
| Spread: Seahawks (-2.5) same side · consensus Chiefs | — | — | Chiefs $5.9K | Chiefs $78K |