Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5)
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (50%) · Kings at 57¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Kings
4
Kings 50%
1 arb excluded
$5.8K
$55.53
54.1¢ → 57.5¢
+6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidKings at 57%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO mooseborzoii | Kingsavg 54.3¢ | $2.8K | $2.9K | +$63.64 | 50% 1012-1005 (2017) |
DO DolphinBallerCTR | Grizzliesavg 46¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$30 | 46% 62-74 (136) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Kingsavg 53.6¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$26.71 | 55% 12111-9992 (22103) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Grizzliesavg 45.5¢ | $464.96 | $453.94 | -$4.82 | 58% 31642-22900 (54542) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Grizzliesavg 45.2¢ | $60.16 | $60.4 | +$0.24 | 54% 13809-11592 (25401) |
| └ Grizzlies leg | Grizzliesavg 45.2¢ | $35.22 | $35.1 | -$0.12 | |
| └ Kings leg | Kingsavg 54.2¢ | $24.94 | $25.3 | +$0.36 |
Invested
$2,831.08
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$63.64
Record
50%
1012-1005 (2017)
Invested
$1,380
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$30
Record
46%
62-74 (136)
Invested
$1,028.62
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$26.71
Record
55%
12111-9992 (22103)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$464.96
Value
$453.94
PnL
-$4.82
Record
58%
31642-22900 (54542)
Invested
$60.16
Value
$60.4
PnL
+$0.24
Record
54%
13809-11592 (25401)
Both legs:
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.