Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Seahawks (63%) · Seahawks at 93¢ · $756K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Seahawks
8
Seahawks 63%
$756.5K
$2.0K
69.9¢ → 93¢
+33% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralSeahawks at 93%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI milkteaboba | Seahawksavg 70¢ | $490.0K | $462.0K | $-28.0K | 58% 22-16 (38) |
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Chiefsavg 30¢ | $210.3K | $238.3K | +$28.0K | 46% 499-595 (1094) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Chiefsavg 31.3¢ | $90.8K | $30.9K | +$2.4K | 55% 3104-2515 (5619) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Seahawksavg 68¢ | $17.3K | $16.8K | -$508.83 | 55% 12568-10337 (22905) |
 RN1 | Seahawksavg 69.5¢ | $3.8K | $4.0K | +$216.9 | 55% 46138-38317 (84455) |
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE | Seahawksavg 68¢ | $3.0K | $2.9K | -$88.36 | 54% 1080-931 (2011) |
AN Anon455 | Seahawksavg 67.3¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$32.1 | 56% 2130-1695 (3825) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100 | Chiefsavg 30¢ | $2.7 | $3.06 | +$0.36 | 52% 7071-6423 (13494) |
Invested
$490,000
Value
$462.0K
PnL
$-28.0K
Record
58%
22-16 (38)
Invested
$210,289.05
Value
$238.3K
PnL
+$28.0K
Record
46%
499-595 (1094)
Invested
$90,769.67
Value
$30.9K
PnL
+$2.4K
Record
55%
3104-2515 (5619)
Invested
$17,300.97
Value
$16.8K
PnL
-$508.83
Record
55%
12568-10337 (22905)
RN1Invested
$3,777.98
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$216.9
Record
55%
46138-38317 (84455)
Invested
$3,017.4
Value
$2.9K
PnL
-$88.36
Record
54%
1080-931 (2011)
Invested
$1,618.37
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$32.1
Record
56%
2130-1695 (3825)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$3.06
PnL
+$0.36
Record
52%
7071-6423 (13494)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.