Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (29%) · Kings at 54¢ · $14K held · ends Oct 26

Grizzlies47¢Kings53¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Kings

Consensus Traders

Kings 29%

Total Value

$14.4K

Combined PnL

$498.55

Smart Money Entry

51.6¢ → 53.5¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidKings at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies47%

Kings54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kings2 traders

Total Value$12.8K

Total Shares23,621

Combined PnL+$562.62

Grizzlies5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,303

Combined PnL-$64.07

Kings — 29%Grizzlies — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKings 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpGrizzlies 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrGrizzlies 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedGrizzlies 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Grizzlies 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO mooseborzoii	Kingsavg 51.6¢	$12.1K	$12.7K	+$561.14	50% 1012-1005 (2017)
VeryLucky888CTR	Grizzliesavg 48.5¢	$1.2K	$919.99	-$44.9	58% 31642-22900 (54542)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Grizzliesavg 49¢	$594.07	$570.19	-$11.94	69% 4259-1919 (6178)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 49¢	$94.85	$89.05	-$5.81	47% 1968-2204 (4172)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Kingsavg 53¢	$78.44	$79.92	+$1.48	75% 2665-901 (3566)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 49¢	$59.77	$58.52	-$1.25	54% 13809-11592 (25401)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 47¢	$7.99	$7.82	-$0.17	58% 1460-1073 (2533)

mooseborzoii

Kings

Invested

$12,114.06

Value

$12.7K

PnL

+$561.14

Record

50%

1012-1005 (2017)

VeryLucky888CTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$1,219.6

Value

$919.99

PnL

-$44.9

Record

58%

31642-22900 (54542)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$594.07

Value

$570.19

PnL

-$11.94

Record

69%

4259-1919 (6178)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$94.85

Value

$89.05

PnL

-$5.81

Record

47%

1968-2204 (4172)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Kings

Invested

$78.44

Value

$79.92

PnL

+$1.48

Record

75%

2665-901 (3566)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$59.77

Value

$58.52

PnL

-$1.25

Record

54%

13809-11592 (25401)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$7.99

Value

$7.82

PnL

-$0.17

Record

58%

1460-1073 (2533)

Research grade

AvoidKings at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Kings

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKings 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpGrizzlies 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrGrizzlies 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedGrizzlies 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Grizzlies 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.