Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Chiefs, while the market favors Seahawks (54%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Seahawks (-2.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Chiefs (60%) · Chiefs at 47¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Chiefs
5
Chiefs 60%
$2.3K
-$12.75
46.8¢ → 46.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralChiefs at 47%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Seahawks 54%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Late
67h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Chiefs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Chiefsavg 47¢ | $895.29 | $847.45 | -$8.76 | 58% 31667-22925 (54592) |
CH chiefphi | Seahawksavg 54¢ | $539.99 | $539.99 | -$5 | 54% 62-52 (114) |
 ComingBackCTR | Chiefsavg 47¢ | $500 | $489.36 | -$5.32 | 62% 3694-2243 (5937) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Chiefsavg 46¢ | $358.11 | $362 | +$3.89 | 55% 3012-2453 (5465) |
 EdZachary<$100 | Seahawksavg 52¢ | $84.19 | $86.62 | +$2.43 | 46% 70-82 (152) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$895.29
Value
$847.45
PnL
-$8.76
Record
58%
31667-22925 (54592)
Invested
$539.99
Value
$539.99
PnL
-$5
Record
54%
62-52 (114)
ComingBackCTRInvested
$500
Value
$489.36
PnL
-$5.32
Record
62%
3694-2243 (5937)
Invested
$358.11
Value
$362
PnL
+$3.89
Record
55%
3012-2453 (5465)
EdZachary<$100Invested
$84.19
Value
$86.62
PnL
+$2.43
Record
46%
70-82 (152)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.